Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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306 FXUS64 KFWD 081705 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1205 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Sunday/ Seasonably hot and rain-free weather will persist through the rest of the weekend. An upper ridge will remain anchored overhead today and during the daytime tomorrow before breaking down heading into early next week. Despite highs in the mid and upper 90s and heat index values approaching triple-digits, a decent southerly breeze of 10-20 mph and some higher gusts will help to offset the otherwise unpleasant June heat. Winds will be lighter tomorrow though, as a slow-moving frontal boundary sags southward towards North Texas late in the day. A rather active radar presentation may exist to our west and north as both this frontal boundary and a West Texas dryline become convectively active. However, thunderstorm chances will not return to our forecast area until later tomorrow evening/night which is addressed in the long term portion of the forecast. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024/ /Sunday Night through Friday/ The aforementioned cold front will continue to sag south across the Red River late Sunday night into Monday with an increase in scattered showers and storms expected. Activity right along the front will likely diminish in coverage and intensity through the night while a complex of storms may be ongoing across far West Texas. This activity would likely dive southward into a pool of untapped instability and generally remain to our west. We`ll show some increasing PoPs late Sunday night across our western counties to account for this. On Monday, the frontal boundary should be draped somewhere near the I-20 corridor, but mid and upper level winds will be weak and there doesn`t appear to be any appreciable large scale forcing for ascent. That being said, PWs will approach 2" and easterly low level flow through about 800 mb should result in a weakly capped environment. This should support at least scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Better storm chances may actually occur late Tuesday and Tuesday night as the global guidance suggests a modest shortwave will spread southeast through the Southern Plains. While the coverage of storms remains a little uncertain, strong afternoon instability should lead to a cluster of thunderstorms developing near the lingering frontal boundary and weak surface low off to the northwest. This activity would spread southeast into the region Tuesday evening/night. For now, we`ll have PoPs at 30-40% for this timeframe, but these may need to be increased in future updates. Temperatures will remain suppressed a bit Monday and Tuesday with increased cloud cover and rain chances, but ridging will begin to overspread the region Wednesday through Friday and we`ll see a corresponding increase in afternoon high temperatures. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18z TAFs/ VFR will prevail the rest of today and tonight, with perhaps a brief intrusion of MVFR stratus at Waco early tomorrow morning. These cigs are currently forecast to remain south/southeast of the D10 airports. A southerly breeze of 10-20 kts and some higher afternoon gusts will eventually wane this evening, with lighter speeds around 10 kts expected for Sunday. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 74 93 73 88 / 0 0 0 10 30 Waco 93 73 91 74 89 / 0 0 0 10 20 Paris 92 72 91 70 83 / 0 0 10 10 30 Denton 95 72 93 70 86 / 0 0 5 20 30 McKinney 94 72 92 70 86 / 0 0 0 10 30 Dallas 96 73 94 73 88 / 0 0 0 10 30 Terrell 92 71 91 71 87 / 0 0 0 10 30 Corsicana 94 73 92 74 90 / 0 0 0 5 20 Temple 94 72 93 73 90 / 0 0 0 5 20 Mineral Wells 97 72 95 71 88 / 0 0 5 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$