982
FXUS64 KFWD 120524
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1224 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

An upper low can be spotted on the latest water vapor satellite
loop spiraling over North Texas this evening. A strengthening
ridge over the Southern Rockies will push the low southeast from
North Texas into East Texas overnight, then through Louisiana on
Wednesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms just west of the DFW
Metroplex continue to develop near the low center. Calling it a
low level jet would be a stretch, but an uptick in 925mb winds
(20-25 MPH) should be enough to generate additional showers and
storms during the overnight period, with development generally
along and south of the I-20 corridor. Activity will develop
farther south with time overnight through Wednesday as the upper
low treks farther south and east. Locally heavy rain would be the
main concern with any storm based on the exceptionally moist and
modestly unstable airmass in place. Not everyone will see rain,
however, due to the spotty nature of the convection.

All precipitation will shift south of the region Wednesday
evening as the low heads for the Gulf and the ridge begins an
eastward expansion into the Southern Plains. The ridge will shut
off our rain chances and bring a return to more typical summer
weather for Texas. It will be a touch warmer Wednesday afternoon
with highs mainly in the 85 to 90 degree range, followed by even
warmer weather on Thursday with afternoon highs mainly 90 to 95
degrees. We will fall short of Heat Advisory criteria, though
Thursday afternoon heat indices of 95 to 100 will be common across
the board.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 313 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/
/Thursday through next Tuesday/

A relatively dry and seasonably warm pattern will persist across
the region from the middle of this week through the early portion
of next week.

In the near-term, a compact upper level ridge centered over
northern Mexico will expand in coverage across the Southern
Plains. Subsidence associated with this high will produce mostly
clear skies, an absence of precipitation, and most significantly,
an increase in daytime temperatures as we reach the latter
portion of the workweek. Many locations will see afternoon highs
in the mid 90s by Friday, a marked increase from the cooler
readings experienced early this week. Fortunately, daytime
dewpoints should remain in the 60s for the most part, limiting any
extremes in heat index values.

The axis of the upper ridge will become elongated more west-east
and shift just south of our area by the weekend. In addition, a
distinct weakness in the ridge will emerge as a vigorous
shortwave trough zips out of the Rockies across the Central
Plains. Large-scale subsidence should diminish accordingly, but
given abundant insolation, believe highs should still manage to
reach the mid 90s in many areas both days.

The weakness in the ridge should linger into the Monday-Tuesday
timeframe, coupled with the evolution of a weak inverted trough
extending from the western Gulf into Southeast Texas. Scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this trough will
tick up across East/Southeast Texas by Monday afternoon. Some of
this precipitation may build into our southeast counties during
the afternoons, and this is reflected in low end chance PoPs
depicted both days. Otherwise, daytime highs in the lower to
middle 90s will remain the rule areawide through Tuesday - just a
touch above seasonal norms for mid-June.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

MVFR ceilings should develop across Central Texas overnight, which
will likely impact KACT Wednesday morning. At this time, it looks
like the DFW Metroplex may get enough subsidence on the back edge
of an exiting upper low to keep conditions VFR. Will have to
monitor METAR trends, however, as a few patches of MVFR may
attempt to invade from the south. Isolated TS may affect the Metro
area overnight, but will shift south of the DFW area TAF sites
Wednesday morning. Isolated TS will remain possible near KACT on
Wednesday, eventually coming to an end Wednesday evening.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  94  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                72  92  70  92  71 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               67  92  66  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              70  93  68  94  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            70  92  68  94  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              73  95  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             70  92  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           71  93  70  94  72 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              72  93  71  94  71 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       70  93  70  95  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$