Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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094 FXUS64 KFWD 080439 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1139 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Overnight through Sunday/ Skies will remain mostly clear for the rest of the night with southerly winds around 10 mph and warm temperatures. Overnight lows will only manage the mid 70s for most locations. Mid level ridging will continue to prevail across the Southern Plains on Saturday with mostly sunny skies expected and temperatures again climbing into the mid and upper 90s. Southerly winds will become breezy by afternoon thanks to modest mixing and this should result in dewpoints falling into the low/mid 60s. While it`ll be hot, heat index values should top out in the upper 90s to near 100, but breezy conditions will make it feel a bit more tolerable. The upper ridge will begin to shift eastward Saturday night into Sunday which will result in slightly "cooler" conditions on Sunday as forecast highs are expected to top out in the lower 90s. Weaker winds and slightly higher dewpoints will make it feel a little more humid. Farther to the north, stronger northwest flow aloft and a passing shortwave through the Central Plains will result in a weak cold front sliding southward through Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along this boundary but should remain well removed from North Texas. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 355 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/ /Next Week/ The ridging aloft responsible for our very warm and humid weekend will shift into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, shaving a few degrees off daytime highs. However, heat index values may still flirt with the century mark. The pattern shift will also allow a late-season cold front to invade the Southern Plains. A daytime- heating-induced uptick in convection along the advancing boundary will be well to our north during the afternoon hours, from the Texas Panhandle through Oklahoma. Although it will steadily diminish in intensity, the activity will eventually enter North Texas Sunday evening, making additional progress during the overnight hours Sunday night into early Monday morning. The frontal boundary will lose its forward momentum, but the arrival of a shortwave trough into the Southern Plains on Monday should assist its southern progress. Aided by renewed convective activity Monday afternoon, the front will finally sag through the region, with backing surface winds. Once the shortwave passes to our east, a period of northwest flow will ensue, with a mid-level ridge axis through New Mexico and Chihuahua. Even with minimal cloud cover, this will assure below normal temperatures prevail through midweek. A cut-off low that will spend most of the week tormenting Southern California will finally move inland late in the week. This will tilt the ridge axis into the Lone Star State, resulting in the return of afternoon temperatures in the 90s. With persistent Gulf moisture remaining in place, triple-digit heat index values will be in place by next weekend. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds becoming breezy by afternoon. No significant aviation concerns are expected through Saturday night. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 95 74 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 20 Waco 74 93 73 91 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 Paris 74 92 71 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 20 Denton 79 95 72 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 30 McKinney 77 95 72 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 20 Dallas 77 95 74 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 20 Terrell 75 92 71 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 20 Corsicana 73 94 73 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 Temple 73 94 72 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 73 97 72 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$