685
FXUS64 KFWD 220552
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1252 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Monday/

One more hot day is in store for North Texas before a cold front
moves through and brings rain chances along with cooler weather
through the middle part of the week. Mid level ridging will
continue to get squished to the south as stronger troughing
overspreads the western and central CONUS through Monday. This
initial shortwave trough will send a cold front southward through
North Texas later this evening. Right now, the front is draped
across the TX Panhandle and far northwest Oklahoma with a
noticeable outflow boundary from earlier convection draped across
central Oklahoma. This will effectively become the cold front
later today and will spread south into North Texas this evening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing mainly to our
northwest this afternoon, although a few storms could sneak into
our northwest counties during this time. Better rain chances will
arrive with the front this evening, although the strongest
synoptic forcing for ascent will begin to pull away to the
northeast by tonight. The highest PoPs this evening will be along
the front mainly across our far western counties, where a semi-
organized cluster of storms should be ongoing. Farther northeast
along the front, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected, although rainfall amounts should be lighter than areas
to the southwest. Rain chances will linger through the overnight
hours and into Monday morning as the front makes slow southward
progress and another upstream shortwave races through the Southern
Plains.

Highs today will top out in the mid 90s under partly cloudy skies,
but will drop 5-15 degrees on Monday with clouds lingering around
and north winds ushering in some cooler air.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 345 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

A weak cold front will enter the northwest zones Sunday night,
likely accompanied by scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The front will be driven by a positive-tilt
shortwave trough, which will propagate east through the Southern
Plains Sunday night through Monday. The highest POPs across North
and Central Texas will be Sunday night into Monday morning when
the strongest ascent will occur, with precipitation tapering off
Monday afternoon as the shortwave moves east and subsidence
develops in its wake. The front should reach southeast Texas by
the time it stalls Monday evening, covering all of North and
Central Texas in a cooler airmass. Cooler is a relative term in
this case as temperatures will drop to near normal values, with
highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

A lull in precipitation will occur Monday night through Tuesday
morning, followed by additional rain and storm chances Tuesday
night and Wednesday associated with an upper low. The low is
progged to drop south from Manitoba through the U.S Plains,
eventually merging over Oklahoma with a shortwave embedded in the
subtropical jet by late Tuesday. Isentropic lift will rapidly
strengthen near and north of the stationary front Tuesday
afternoon and evening, leading to another round of showers and
occasional thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday.
Convection will be elevated in nature and likely sub severe, but
lapse rates do look steep enough to support hail in some of the
stronger storms.

The low itself will shift slightly east on Thursday, pushing most
of the precipitation into East Texas, but low rain chances may
need to be kept across the eastern-most counties where wrap-around
moisture may generate a few rain showers. Fortunately, the
position of the low may be what deflects next week`s potential
tropical system off to the east and away from Texas. It is far too
soon, however, to speculate on if, when and where the tropical
system may develop. Otherwise, temperatures should remain near
normal next week through the end of the month.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through today with south winds around 10 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along an
approaching cold front to our west this afternoon. This front will
spread through the D10 airspace this evening and we`ll show a wind
shift to the north around 01Z. Scattered showers and a few storms
are likely to develop and continue through much of the overnight
hours before diminishing in coverage on Monday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  95  67  81  66 /   0  10  50  50  10
Waco                75  95  70  87  68 /   0   5  40  30  10
Paris               71  93  68  83  63 /   0   5  30  50  10
Denton              74  93  65  80  62 /   0  20  50  50  10
McKinney            74  94  68  82  63 /   0   5  40  50  10
Dallas              76  95  69  84  66 /   0  10  50  50  10
Terrell             74  95  69  85  65 /   0   5  30  40  10
Corsicana           74  95  72  87  68 /   0   5  20  30  10
Temple              73  95  71  88  68 /   0   5  30  20  10
Mineral Wells       72  92  63  79  61 /   0  40  70  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$