Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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121 FXUS64 KFWD 131934 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 234 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1254 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ /Today Through Friday/ A dominant upper level ridge will keep the weather quiet as we close out the work week. As a result, it will be quite warm across the region with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s both today and tomorrow. Dew points won`t mix out too much during the afternoon hours, so heat index values will likely top 100 degrees for some locations. However, we are not expecting to meet Heat Advisory criteria at this time. Patchy fog may develop across portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley early Friday morning. Otherwise, no notable weather (other than the heat and humidity) is expected through the period. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Friday Night Onward/ Long story short: Expect a quiet weekend before an unsettled pattern brings on and off rain chances next week. Short story long: A closed upper low currently off the coast of SoCal will de-amplify into an open shortwave as it moves onshore and towards the Central Plains this weekend. As it does, the upper level ridge (mentioned in the short term discussion above) will be shifted towards the Deep South in response. The shortwave will slowly move across the Continental Divide early this weekend, but North and Central Texas will remain dry as better moisture and lift remain displaced to the north. A warm weekend is expected with afternoon temperatures in the 90s and heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100-101. Over this upcoming week, North and Central Texas will find themselves between a trough and a high place. We`ll continue to be located on the back edge of the eastern ridge through the week, with a longwave trough to our northwest. Moisture advection will really increase beginning early in the week, ushering abundant tropical moisture in the form of around 2" PWATs and 70s dewpoints in to the region. While overall forcing will remain nebulous without a direct focusing boundary/shortwave, diurnal heating will allow for isolated-scattered showers and storms during the afternoons on Monday and Tuesday, mainly across our east and southeast zones. Isolated storm chances will expand region-wide in the latter portions of this next week as the northern extent of a tropical wave in the western GOM advances further inland. We`ll continue to watch for more fine-scale details as they come in, but threats of heavy rain and lightning will interrupt any outdoor plans. Prater && .AVIATION... /Issued 1254 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR and light south to southeast winds below 10 knots will continue through the period. No significant aviation concerns are expected through Friday. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 95 74 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 73 96 72 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 68 94 69 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 72 94 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 71 94 71 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 73 96 73 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 70 94 70 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 72 94 72 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 73 95 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 71 94 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$