194
FXUS64 KFWD 201906
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
206 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/
/Through Friday/

Isolated showers have developed along and west of the I-35
corridor as we remain on the periphery of Tropical Depression
Alberto. While most of the activity this afternoon will be west
of I-35, an isolated shower can`t be ruled out further east.
Therefore, low (10%) PoPs have been introduced to the worded
forecast for most of the area to account for this potential. These
showers should slowly push west throughout the day, eventually
dissipating shortly after sunset.

Aside from the rain chances, dense cloud cover will keep areas
along and west of US-281 mostly in the mid to upper 80s this
afternoon. The rest of the region will see afternoon highs in the
low to mid 90s. Friday will be slightly warmer given there will
be fewer clouds to filter the sunshine, with most locations
warming into the 90s. While dew points will mix out some during
the afternoon, heat index values could top 100 degrees for a few
locations tomorrow.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night Onward/

The main headline for the upcoming weekend and next week will be
hot, rain-free and humid conditions. Upper-level ridging will
take hold of the region and result in highs in the mid 90s
Saturday warming into the mid/upper 90s Sunday. Another area of
low pressure near the Bay of Campeche has been outlined by NHC for
potential tropical cyclone development (50%) in the next 7 days.
The strength of the ridge will dampen any real impacts, however,
outside of increased moisture from the Gulf sending widespread
heat indices above the triple digit mark by the start of next
week.

This heat will unfortunately continue into the midweek, with
afternoon temperatures forecast in the upper 90s and breaking 100
degrees in some areas Monday into Wednesday, along with heat indices
nearing the 105-110 F range Tuesday and Wednesday regionwide. These
hot "feels like" temperatures will increase the potential for
heat-related illnesses, particularly among vulnerable
populations. Overnight lows Tuesday night will also be quite warm
in the upper 70s (and some low 80s in North TX), increasing the
likelihood of heat stress from a lack of relief in the overnight
periods. Regardless of exact temperatures, this is the North &
Central TX`s first potential for an extended duration of hot
temperatures this season, and precautions to protect yourself and
your loved ones from the heat and resultant heat-related illnesses
should be taken. Guidance still indicates a potential for the
ridge to break down in the mid to late week period, however any
rain chances returning will likely hold off until Wednesday. With
the center of the ridge off to the west, NW flow aloft may allow
for some lucky areas to see rain, although the overall chance of
receiving any meaningful rainfall is quite low. While some
deterministic runs are slightly more bullish Wednesday into
Thursday, ensemble guidance is only highlighting a 20% chance for
more than 0.1" of rain for those north of HWY 380 and east of
I-35, with the rest of the region unlikely (10% chance or less)
to receive rainfall. As always, we will continue to monitor this
potential, however the greatest attention should be directed
towards the heat in the next 3-7 days.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR and east to southeast winds will continue. Wind speeds will be
around 10 to 12 knots during the afternoon today and tomorrow, and
around 5 to 7 knots during the overnight period.

Isolated showers have developed across western North and Central
Texas. While a stray shower can`t be ruled out near any of the
terminals this afternoon, the potential is too low to warrant a
mention in the TAFs for now. MVFR stratus may impact the KACT
terminal for a few hours Friday morning, but it will likely be
intermittent.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  95  77  96  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  92  74  94  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               71  93  72  94  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              75  94  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            74  94  74  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              76  95  77  97  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             73  94  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           74  93  75  95  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  92  72  94  72 /  20   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  93  73  95  74 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$