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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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045 FXUS64 KFWD 130040 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 740 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: With the southeastward departure of the mid-level low and the eastward expansion of the mid-level ridge currently centered over Desert Southwest and northern Mexico, the transition to drier and hotter weather is well underway. Today`s peak temperatures were as much as 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday. Overall, the forecast trends discussed below remain on track, and no significant adjustments were needed with this evening`s update other than to incorporate present observations. With calm winds and lingering moisture in the lower levels, patchy fog remains possible around daybreak across portions of North and Central Texas (generally west/south of a Jacksboro to Waco to Centerville line. Confidence remains low in any one location experiencing dense fog however, so we will forgo the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory with this update. Any fog that develops should dissipate within a few hours of sunrise. 12 Previous Discussion: /Today and Thursday/ This morning`s widespread showers and isolated storms that brought heavy rain and flash flooding to portions of Central Texas have finally dissipated. A few showers have developed in portions of western North Texas, with a rather dense cumulus field evident across nearly the entire area on visible satellite imagery. Given we are still on the periphery of a departing upper level trough, isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible across much of the area through the afternoon. The potential for lightning will remain low, but an isolated rumble of thunder can`t be entirely ruled out. Fortunately, marginal deep-layer shear and weak lift will keep any threat for severe weather very low, with this activity dissipating by this evening. Quiet weather is expected through the remainder of the period, although we may have to contend with patchy fog early Thursday morning. Otherwise, our warming trend continues tomorrow with nearly all locations seeing afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 313 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/ /Thursday Night through Juneteenth/ Key Messages: 1) Warm/Hotter Temperatures through next week with Heat Index values in the upper 90s and around 100 degrees. 2) Low rain chances return Sunday and continue through mid week, in particular across East and Central Texas. Upper level ridging anchored across West Texas/New Mexico will expand across the state late this week keeping warm conditions in place. Over the weekend, a shortwave trough will move north of us through the Plains, sparking a few rounds of convection, but any storms are expected to remain north or northwest of our area. However, we will still have to keep an eye on the movement of any evening convection as the evening and overnight low-level jet may be able to excite convection along any boundaries that race ahead of evening complexes of storms, potentially bringing storms near or into our far northwest counties. Again, the potential for this is pretty low at this time, and PoPs are not mentioned in the forecast Friday or Saturday. Otherwise, through Saturday, high temperatures will be in the 90s with heat index values a few degrees above measured temperatures. By Sunday, the upper level ridge anchors over the southeastern CONUS, opening our region to deep southerly flow that transports humid air from the GOM into our area. Humidity will increase as a result, resulting in afternoon heat index values closer to and around 100 degrees through the middle of next week. With increased moisture, the upper ridge to our east, and southwest flow aloft, daily rain chances are also in the forecast Sunday through Wednesday/Juneteenth. Low rain chances start in our southeastern counties Sunday afternoon, and then expand north across East Texas Monday and Tuesday. Coverage of storms is expected to be isolated to scattered, and the main hazards with any storms will mostly likely be lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall that could cause flooding/flash flooding. More widespread storms could occur on Wednesday, but we are still well a ways out from next Wednesday for any confidence around the middle of next week. JLDunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail with light winds continuing to vary from the E to SE. Any fog that develops overnight should remain well west of the Metroplex TAF sites. Confidence in impacts at KACT remain too low to warrant the inclusion of any mention of fog with this issuance. 12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 94 74 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 72 92 72 92 71 / 5 0 0 0 0 Paris 66 91 67 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 69 93 70 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 69 92 69 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 72 94 72 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 68 91 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 72 92 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 72 92 72 94 71 / 5 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 70 93 71 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$