432
FXUS64 KFWD 180610
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
110 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tonight/

North Texas will remain in the grip of an upper level ridge
extending from northern Mexico into the Central Plains. Subsidence
associated with this feature will continue to produce clear skies
and temperatures that are noticeably above normal for the last
half of September. Highs will climb well into the 90s across the
entire area later today, while lows tonight will only manage to
reach the lower 70s. A southerly flow regime will pump renewed
moisture into the region, contributing to heat indices that will
push past the century mark in many locales later today.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 347 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/
/Thursday Through Early Next Week/

Unseasonably strong ridging will intensify into the weekend above
the Southern Plains as persistent troughing dominates both the
West and the East. Temperatures will steadily climb in tandem with
rising 500mb heights, which will top 5900m by Friday. All
available perfect-prog guidance projects 500mb temperatures above
the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex will rise above -1C (into the 30s
in Fahrenheit) on Friday. The NAM has 500mb temperatures above
freezing! This isn`t just near-record for September but would
challenge the all-time record high 500mb temperature for our local
weather balloons (1950 to present), which is -0.5C from July 1951.
Despite intense subsidence and similarly impressive temperature
anomalies at 700 and 850mb, a remarkably humid boundary layer,
combined with the shorter days and lower sun angles of September,
may keep Friday`s high temperatures below daily record highs
(values in the climate section below). MOS guidance has highs near
100F Friday afternoon for many locations, including DFW and Waco.
Heat index values will exceed 100 across much of the region late
in the week and into the upcoming weekend, with the highest values
occurring on Friday.

An upper low will emerge from the Rockies on Saturday. Although
its associated cold front will likely get no closer than the Texas
Panhandle, it will reorient our upper ridge. Combined with an
influx of high clouds, this may shave a few degrees off afternoon
temperatures on Saturday. However, there will still be the
potential for temperatures to threaten the century mark in some
locations. Decaying frontal convection from West Texas may invade
from the west Saturday night into Sunday morning; these showers
are the only rain chances in the 7-day forecast.

Early next week, the ridge will be displaced to our south. While
this will bring an end to the threat of triple digits,
temperatures will remain above normal with highs generally in the
90s Sunday through Tuesday. However, extended guidance knows that
cold fronts cluster around the autumnal equinox (which is on
Sunday). Although there is considerable disparity among
operational solutions and ensemble members, there is some hope for
a cold front during the middle of next week. But don`t break out
the winter coats just yet; the Climate Prediction Center continues
to favor above normal temperatures through the end of the month.

.CLIMATE...

Record Highs for September 20 (Friday)
   DFW       102 in 1953
   Waco      101 in 2021
   Killeen   100 in 2021

(DFW Airport was 100 degrees on September 20, 2021.)

Although all 3 sites recorded later triple-digit days last year,
each location has only reached the century mark this late in the
year (September 20 and later) 5 years this century.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through 12z Thursday,
as upper level high pressure maintains its grip on the region. Scattered
cumulus clouds will develop areawide after 15z this morning;
otherwise, skies will remain clear. Low level east to southeast
winds prior to dawn will shift to a southerly direction at speeds
of 8-12 knots by midday, as a trough of low pressure develops in
the lee of the Rockies.

Bradshaw

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  97  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  97  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               71  94  71  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              73  97  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            73  97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              76  98  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             72  97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           74  97  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  97  73  97  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  97  72  98  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$