848
FXUS64 KFWD 151721
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Monday Night/

Mostly sunny and warm conditions will continue for the rest of the
afternoon with low chances for thunderstorms mainly south of I-20.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows some puffy cumulus
developing across our southwest counties within an axis of
increasing instability. Weak northeast flow is spreading in across
the region and this will set up an area of focused low level
convergence within this instability axis this afternoon. We should
see an uptick in scattered convection mainly across the southern
half of the CWA this afternoon where we`ll have 20-30% PoPs. This
activity will be diurnally driven and will decrease in coverage
with loss of heating. Any storms that develop could produce some
gusty winds along with frequent lightning.

It should be quiet overnight with slightly cooler air in place
across our northeast counties where lows will drop into the mid
and upper 60s. Elsewhere, it`ll be mild with lows in the 70s.

Monday should feature mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper
80s and lower 90s as we start to see a little more influence from
mid level ridging and lower PWs.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 248 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024/
Update:
There is very little change to the long-term portion of the
forecast. Above-average temperatures and mostly sunny conditions
will persist through much of the work week across North and
Central Texas. We will be monitoring for a potential pattern
change in the late Friday-Saturday timeframe that could bring
increased rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures back to
the region. See the previous discussion below for more details.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Upcoming Week and Beyond/

Near to slightly above average temperatures and mostly dry
conditions can be expected for all of North and Central Texas
through the upcoming work week. Afternoon highs will generally
range between the low to mid 90s, with a few locations out west
approaching the upper 90s. It will feel much like a typical late
summer setup for most of the region, at least through the next
week or so. Overnight lows will stay warm and humid thanks to the
return of southerly flow at the surface and increased dew points,
hovering around the mid 70s each night. Rain chances will remain
low through the week, giving way to abnormally dry conditions. Our
flow pattern will continue to be dictated by weak upper level
ridging across the Southern Plains, keeping us in northwesterly
flow aloft. Widespread subsidence will keep the best rain chances
to our north and west, with low confidence in any showers or
storms reaching our area through much of the week ahead.

But there is potential for a pattern change next weekend! The
latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to hint at a
breakdown of this upper level ridge, which would allow troughing
across the western and eastern CONUS to guide our weather
conditions. While confidence remains quite low regarding specifics
at this time, this would help to increase rain chances as we move
into the latter half of the month. This would also bring about
cooler temperatures for most of the region, reminding us that this
summer weather will eventually come to an end. Continue to check
back for updates to the forecast as details become more refined!

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR should prevail through the period with generally easterly
flow 5 to 10 kt. Wind direction may be more east-northeast across
D10 late in the period, but speeds should generally remain 10 kt
or less. There will some low storm chances around ACT this
afternoon but coverage is expected to be a little to low for
mention in the TAF. We`ll continue to monitor this potential.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  72  91  71  90 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                98  70  94  69  94 /  20  10   0   0   0
Paris               88  67  86  68  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              92  67  91  67  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            94  67  90  68  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              95  71  92  70  92 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             93  67  89  68  90 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           94  70  92  70  92 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              98  70  94  69  95 /  30  20   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       95  69  92  68  93 /  20   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$