331
FXUS65 KGGW 170804
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
204 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- There will be repeated chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
  over the next several days.

- Gusty west winds up to 40 mph are expected Friday, Lake Wind
  Advisory issued from 8AM Fri to 9PM Sat.

- Slightly cooler temperatures are expected over the weekend, more
  noticeable drop in temperature on Monday and Tuesday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Trough will dig south out of Canada and bring a cold front with
it. This will bring higher winds to the region, enough for a Lake
Wind Advisory from Friday morning into Saturday but looks like
it`ll remain below high wind criteria. The trough will bring more
moisture in the mid levels which will lead to more widespread
clouds and scattered showers, the lower levels of the atmosphere
will be drier which will lead to lower QPF`s as well as a chance
for gusty winds with the showers as evaporating rain through the
dry layer will lead to stronger downdrafts. The better chances for
afternoon storms will be towards the southeast as the front takes
a bit longer to advect drier air into those zones.

Showers will end by midday Saturday as a weak and fast moving ridge
moves through the area. This break will not last long as another
trough brings another shot of showers into the area Sunday into
Monday. Cooler air behind this trough will drop temperatures into
the 50s and 60s Monday into Tuesday.

Unsettled weather continues for the rest of next week as troughing
allows more disturbances to rotate through and bring continued
shower or thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will hover at or just
below seasonal averages.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

High confidence exists on the gusty west to northwest winds
Friday and Saturday.

There is lower confidence for QPF amounts and thunderstorm
activity as front will dry out lower levels of the atmosphere and
reduce CAPE values in the Friday through Saturday morning event.

-Bernhart



&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0830Z

FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Mid level clouds and high based showers or
thunderstorms will move through the region today into Saturday
afternoon.

WINDS: W-NW 15-25kts, gusts to 40kts

-Bernhart


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT Saturday
for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-
Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow