516
FXUS63 KGID 132329
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
629 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal temperatures expected to persist through at least
  next week with highs in the 80s.

- We could see a few sprinkles late tonight (after midnight)
  lasting into Saturday morning, but most locations will remain
  dry or just see scattered trace amounts.

- Small chances for showers and thunderstorms begin Sunday night
  through Monday night (20-30%) as large western upper trough
  nears our area.

- Better chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected off
  and on Tuesday night through Friday (30-50%) with upper storm
  system nudging further east and closer to our region. Warm for
  this time of year (80s) all of next week on the warm side of
  the large upper trough.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Tonight through the Sunday...

The remnants of Hurricane Francine will continue to spin around
the Arkansas to Alabama area moving very little, but gradually
weakening with time. Some of the high clouds from Francine have
made their way as far northwest as Iowa today and could sneak
back west into some of our eastern counties later tonight into
Saturday morning. We could see a few isolated sprinkles late
tonight into Saturday morning, but most locations should remain
dry.

Several runs of the HRRR model indicate that there could be
patchy shallow fog development early Saturday morning just to
our east across southeastern Nebraska, but will keep fog mention
out of our forecast for now as the winds will remain just a
little stronger across our forecast area preventing fog
formation.

The warm weather will continue this weekend and beyond with
Saturday probably being one of the cooler days of the 7 day
forecast, but only by a few degrees. Highs Saturday will be
in the lower 80s for most locations with mainly mid 80s expected
for most of the rest of the week.


Monday through Friday...

A large upper trough will deepen across the western United
States at the start of the week and then remain through the
week being reinforced by several different shortwaves as the
week progresses. The first chances for thunderstorms begin
Sunday night. However, the better chances for thunderstorms
will probably hold off until mid to late week as the upper
trough tries to edge further east (Tuesday Night/Thursday night
into Friday). At this point the NBM precipitation chances are
only 30-50 percent, but I expect these will go up for at least
certain time frames as timing of the embedded shortwaves becomes
more clear.

The entire region will continue to see above normal temperatures
(highs in the 80s) with warm/moist flow expected ahead of this
upper trough. Given the strength of this upper trough we may
even have to watch out for the possibility of some severe
weather late week somewhere in the central plains, but too early
to pinpoint just when and where.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Southeasterly winds are expected through the TAF period,
diminishing to around 5 kts overnight then increasing again to
around 10 kts during the day Saturday. Some mid- and high level
clouds are expected through the period, mainly at 5k to 7k ft
AGL for the mid-level clouds and 20k to 25k for the high level
clouds. Most cloud cover will remain VFR, although models do
indicate a 20-30% chance of MVFR conditions between 11Z and 15Z
Saturday morning. A few sprinkles may be possible along with the
lower cloud deck but confidence remains low regarding that.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Hickford