Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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888 FXUS63 KGID 060914 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 414 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Early morning showers clear out by 7-8am. Dry and breezy for the rest of the day today. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. Some could be severe, mainly 5pm to midnight. - Low chances for rain/t-storms Saturday through Tuesday, mainly during the overnight hours. Overall, below-normal rain totals are favored through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A band of midlevel clouds is bisecting the forecast area is visible on IR satellite, along with a few showers developing on radar as of 345am. An isolated rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, but severe weather is not expected. This activity will continue to push southeastward this morning. The vast majority of areas will stay dry this morning, and areas that do see rain will likely receive 0.10" or less. This activity should exit the area entirely by 7-8am. Dry conditions are expected for the rest of the day, with breezy northwesterly winds. These winds will be strongest over northeastern portions of the forecast area that are closer to the deep upper trough centered over the Great Lakes. Friday could once again start off with some high-based showers or isolated t-storms, but the main timeframe for thunderstorms is expected to be as a more organized shortwave arrives late in the afternoon and through the evening. Exact convective details remain somewhat uncertain, but CAMs generally depict a few clusters of storms moving from northwest to southeast across the area in the 5pm to midnight timeframe. With abundant deep-layer shear (50kt+ 0-6km) and ample instability (1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE), these storms will be capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. As such, the SPC has added a "Slight Risk" (level 2 of 5) to most of the forecast area. The passage of a cold front will usher in cooler air for the weekend and into early next week. High temperatures are expected to stay in the 70s for most of the area Saturday through Monday. There are additional chances for thunderstorms during this period, especially Monday night as a more organized shortwave moves through. That said, global ensembles continue to favor below-normal precipitation totals overall. The latest NBM shows only a 20-40% chance for even 0.50" of total rain Saturday through Monday night. Rising heights aloft will signal for warming temperatures for the middle to end of next week. This will also likely be another relatively dry period, with all 3 major global ensembles (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) all favoring below-normal precipitation through at least the middle of June. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Northwest winds gradually decrease through the day on Thursday, becoming light/variable Thursday evening. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Mangels