Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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311 FXUS63 KGID 120502 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1202 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Have added a slight chance (20%) of thunderstorms to our northern counties for very late tonight into the first part of Wed daytime (see UPDATE section below). - Temperatures heat up on Wednesday with highs in the 90s to possibly around 100 degrees. Heat index values between 100 to 105 degrees are expected on Thursday across portions of north central Kansas. - Wednesday late afternoon-evening roughly the northeast 1/4 of our coverage area is under a Marginal Risk of severe, BUT a strengthening cap COULD keep us storm-free (a conditional threat). - Storm chances (15% to around 25%) increase Thursday evening and night along the leading edge of a cold front. Some of these storms may be strong to severe. - Rain and storm chances continue Friday through early next week with the highest chances (20% to near 70%) Friday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1007 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 -- Mainly Regarding the introduction of slight thunderstorm chances to our far northern counties very late overnight into Wed AM: - Now that our "sneaky"/spotty late afternoon/early evening storms near the I-80/Hwy 6 corridors have all but faded away, we have very high confidence that MOST of our coverage area (CWA) will be DRY most of these next 12 hours or so. - That being said, just introduced some slight (20%) chances for spotty storms to the very late night-Wed AM time frame (officially 5-11 AM) for our far northern CWA (mainly along/north of Highway 92). Although most of this potential activity should remain north-northeast of our CWA altogether (where mid-level temps will be a bit cooler/less capping), there are just enough hints in higher-res models that our northern zones could be grazed...that felt more comfortable with the slight chances. Fortunately, any such possible morning activity should not be severe due to fairly weak instability. - Will defer to incoming night shift to further assess the VERY IFFY chance for isolated/spotty (but potentially severe?) storms for late Wed afternoon-evening (strong capping could keep storms at bay completely), but at least for now mainly the northeast 1/4 of our CWA remains under a Marginal Risk from SPC. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Today and tonight... Light and mostly variable winds along with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures today are expected to mostly be in the mid to upper 80s. Winds will increase out of the south tonight with clear to mostly clear skies. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s. Wednesday through Saturday night... An upper level ridge will be centered over Arizona and New Mexico on Wednesday. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest Wednesday afternoon as a surface low to the north of the area strengthens. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon are expected to heat up into the 90s with some places possibly reaching the triple digits. The areas most likely to reach the triple digits will be south and west of a line from Lexington to Holdrege to Phillipsburg and Stockton. Some areas in central Nebraska may have heat index values that are around or at 100 degrees. A cold front will begin moving into Nebraska Wednesday night. Low temperatures Wednesday night across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s. The front will continue moving through the area on Thursday with breezy northeasterly winds. Temperatures will be cooler from the previous day with highs ranging from the mid 80s to around 100 degrees. Heat index values across portions of north central Kansas may get over 100 degrees but will likely stay under 105 degrees. Low temperatures Thursday night will range from the upper 50s to near 70 degrees. Rain and storm chances (15% to around 25%) will increase Thursday evening and night along the leading edge of the front. Some of these storms may become strong to severe. Upper ridging will be over the southern and central Plains on Friday with upper disturbances moving over Nebraska and Kansas. These disturbances will allow for continued chances (15% to around 30%) of showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Winds will be gusty out of the southeast. Temperatures will continue cooling from the previous day with highs mostly in the 80s. Upper disturbances will move over the area Friday night with chances (20% to near 70%) of showers and thunderstorms increasing. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the low 60s to low 70s. An upper trough will continue over the southern and central Plains on Saturday. This will result in continued chances (15% to near 40%) of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be similar to those from the previous night. Sunday through Monday night... A cold front will approach or begin passing through the area on Sunday. This uncertainty in frontal position will impact high temperatures on Sunday. At this time, am expecting high temperatures on Sunday to range from the upper 80s to the upper 90s. Rain and storms are expected along and behind the front. High temperatures on Monday are expected to be in the low 80s to mid 90s with rain and storm chances (15% to near 25%). Low temperatures early next week will generally be in the low 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. LLWS is anticipated at both TAF sites from 12/06Z through 12/13Z. A few clouds at 8-10k ft AGL and perhaps another layer at around 20k ft AGL will filter through the area overnight and Wednesday morning with clear skies expected from around noon through the end of the period. Winds will be southerly at 6-8 kts overnight, but will increase around daybreak today. Winds will become SWrly after sunrise, with gusts of 20-25 kts this morning and 25-30 kts this afternoon. Winds will diminish to 10 kts or less this evening. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Pfannkuch DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Hickford