651
FXUS63 KGID 232315
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
615 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across south
  central Nebraska and north central Kansas late this evening
  and overnight. The best chances for severe weather in our area
  will be for south central Nebraska between 10pm and 4am, with
  storms ending from west to east.

- A progression of systems will move through the region over the
  Memorial Day Weekend. These systems will bring a chance of
  periodic shower and thunderstorm activity to portions of the
  area, which could put a damper on some outdoor holiday plans.

- Expect a gradual warming trend heading into mid-week, with
  highs returning to the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A closed low will move into the western part of the Dakotas this
afternoon and evening, with a warm front over the Dakotas.  Things
have warmed up fairly well, with temperatures currently ranging from
the mid-70s to low 80s.  SBCAPE values are expected to reach around
1000-2500 J/kg with MLCAPE values around 1500-3000 J/kg.  DCAPE
values of 1200-1400 J/kg are also expected along with steep lapse
rates.  A cold front is expected to move through the region later
today, which will be the lifting mechanism for the main part of our
severe weather concerns.  A few isolated storms may be possible this
evening, but the bulk of the severe weather issues will be mainly
between 10pm and 4am.  Storms are expected to initiate, congealing
into a line as they cross the Hastings CWA.  Strong winds up to
75mph will be the main hazard.  Large hail up to ping pong to golf
ball size will also be a concern.  A few tornadoes embedded within
the line of storms will also be possible.  This will make any
tornadoes that doe develop, potentially difficult to see, especially
with the event occurring after dark.

With the passage of the front and pressure rises in the area, there
may be a few hours where winds are pretty strong following the
storms moving through the area.  Should this situation pan out, a
few areas could see some non-thunderstorm, post frontal wind gusts
nearing 50mph. Low confidence at this time in this solution.

Friday, the cold front will clear the region, with the low lifting
to the north, into Canada.  Precipitation should be clearing the
area around or shortly after sunrise.  For the rest of the day, dry
conditions and cooler temperatures are expected.  Highs will range
from the mid to upper 60s along and north of I-80 to the mid-70s in
north central Kansas.  Breezy conditions are expected through mid-
afternoon, easing off from southwest to northeast  as the low moves
out.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a couple of disturbances will move
into the region.  This may result in some periodic showers and
thunderstorms, which could put a damper on holiday plans.  At the
moment, the best chance for any stronger to marginally severe storms
would be Saturday afternoon and evening.  For those planning on
outdoor activities, continue to monitor the forecast through the
weekend.

Temperatures warm up heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs
returning to the mid-70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions with SSE winds gusting to 25-30 kts will only
continue until around 05Z tonight. By then, a cold front moving
across the area will bring strong to severe thunderstorms as
well as a wind shift to NW behind the front. These thunderstorms
may well be severe with large hail, damaging winds (I put gusts
to 55 kts in the TAFs but they may be even stronger), and
isolated tornadoes. The most likely timeframe for +TSRA at the
TAF sites will be approximately from 24/04Z to 24/08Z.
Visibility will likely be restricted as these storms move over
the sites as well. Behind the front Friday morning, NW winds
will continue to gust to 25-30 kts through the day, but should
diminish to around 9-12 kts by the end of the period. VFR
ceilings/visibility are expected to return shortly behind the
passage of the thunderstorms early Friday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Hickford