482
FXUS63 KGID 121118
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
618 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures ramp up today with highs in the mid and upper 90s
  and heat index values near 100 degrees. Thursday, highs will
  be cooler north but just as hot south, and heat index values
  across north central Kansas are expected to be in the 100 to
  105 degree range Thursday afternoon.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible periodically from
  Thursday afternoon through the middle of next week, with the
  greatest chances Friday evening into Saturday morning when
  there is a 60-80 percent chance of storms.

- Temperatures Friday through the middle of next week will still
  be warm, but highs will be in the 80s to low 90s...so not
  quite as hot as the middle of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

This morning, westerly flow aloft prevails over the central
Plains and generally, further west toward the Pacific coast.
Further south, high pressure is building over the desert
southwest with the upper high centered over the AZ/NM/Mexico
border. There is also an upper level low located off the coast
of southern California.

Today and Thursday...
A weak surface low is expected to develop today over the
Nebraska panhandle. This will help tighten the pressure
gradient across the central and southern Plains, causing
southerly winds to increase today. By as early as mid- to late
morning, we will see winds out of the south-southwest sustained
at 20-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph. Winds will diminish going
into the evening and overnight hours tonight. With how strongly
capped the area will be with the warm temperatures aloft along
with the weak winds aloft, it would be a mighty struggle to get
thunderstorms to develop, even with the plentiful surface
heating and dewpoints well into the 60s. Temperatures today will
be in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values this afternoon
will be in the 90s and approaching 100 degrees in some places.
Overnight lows will remain warm, in the mid to upper 60s in
south central Nebraska and in the upper 60s and low 70s in north
central Kansas.

A cold front will move across the area Wednesday night and
Thursday, and this will keep temperatures north "cooler" but
still hot in the south. High temperatures will range from the
mid-80s north to the upper 90s south (across north central
Kansas). With those hottest temperatures will also be heat index
values of 100-105 degrees. There will be a chance of
thunderstorms Thursday evening and overnight (~20%) and the
southern two-thirds of the forecast area is in a Marginal Risk
for severe thunderstorms, with large hail and strong winds being
the main threats with any thunderstorms that develop.

Friday and Saturday...
The upper low over California will split the building ridges
over the northern Plains and southern Plains/Texas, with the low
moving northeast Friday, evolving into an upper level trough
feature. Leading this feature will be a pronounced shortwave
trough, which will bring the first really good chances of
thunderstorms (60-80%) across the area Friday evening into
Saturday morning. With strong instability (2500-4500 J/kg,
depending on the forecast model) and strong deep layer shear
(50+ kts), there may well be severe storms Friday evening and
overnight with large hail and damaging winds. Models indicate
very heavy rainfall with these storms as well, so will need to
keep an eye on the potential for localized flooding. Some of
this activity may linger into Saturday afternoon as the upper
trough continues through the area, but chances are a bit lower
(20-40%). High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s both
Friday and Saturday.

Sunday through next Tuesday...
After likely a mainly dry Sunday, another front will impact the
area, this one associated with surface low pressure developing
over the general area of the Rocky Mountains. Model guidance is
still having a tough time with how soon the cold front moves in
and how long it lingers over the area, so there are in general
at least slight chances (20%+) of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday evening through next Tuesday. It is still too early to
determine severe potential but with this continued pattern it
would not be surprising. Temperatures will be pretty
consistent, with highs in the 80s and 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Generally
southerly winds at 10-12 kts early this morning will increase
through the morning, with gusts of 25-30 kts expected from mid-
morning through the daytime hours today. Winds will diminish and
become westerly this evening, then relatively light and variable
toward the end of the TAF period. Skies will be clear the
majority of the time, with a few mid-level and high level clouds
filtering in toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford