Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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195 FXUS63 KGID 012101 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 401 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms possible tonight and again Sunday night. An enhanced risk for severe storms (mainly with wind gusts in excess of 70 MPH) now in effect for Sunday night. - Continued thunderstorm chances both Monday and Tuesday with a break in precipitation chances expected mid-week. - High temperatures in the mid-80s expected Sunday through Wednesday. A slight cooldown with high temperatures closer to 80 expected to end the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 After a few sub-severe thunderstorms impacted western portions of the area this morning along with a blanket of fog across the region, skies have cleared and a mostly sunny and nice afternoon is shaping up across the local area. Some CU can be seen on satellite forming mainly west of the local area, where instability has been building this afternoon. Looking at mesoscale analysis, plenty of instability - only the order of 3000 J/KG - is building across southwestern Nebraska where modest shear - with effective shear values of 35-45KTS - exists. This combination should be sufficient for severe thunderstorm development near the dryline over the next couple of hours, which will eventually transition east towards the local area by the mid to late evening hours. As these storms reach the western fringes of the local area late this evening, large hail will still be a concern, with the threat transitioning to a mainly wind threat later in the night as these storms push east. A slight risk for severe weather exists mainly west of highway 281 this evening where the hail threat is greatest, with a marginal threat for severe weather extending east across nearly the remainder of the area for the overnight hours. For Sunday, the severe weather threat was increased to an enhanced risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center earlier in the day as models have been indicating the threat for a MCS developing and impacting a large portion of the local area during the evening and overnight hours Sunday. This would largely translate into a wind threat across the local area, with a 30 percent chance for significant wind currently in the forecast. In addition to the wind, this looks to be the better chance for a more widespread potential for heavy rainfall, and will need to continue to monitor pockets of heavy rain as soils are saturated across the region. Thereafter...the upper level flow remains fairly active, with additional thunderstorms chances in the forecast both Monday and Tuesday...primarily during the evening and overnight hours. Currently, the severe weather potential appears fairly low with potential flooding possibly being the greater concern. For the middle of the week, upper level ridging should help put a cap on thunderstorm potential both Wednesday and Thursday, with high temperatures topping out mostly in the mid-80s - or about 5 to 7 degrees above normal. Thereafter, uncertainty increases in model data and low end chances for thunderstorms are in the forecast for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The winds will become more southeasterly today as high presure over NE will move to the SE today. Tonight the models try to bring in a cluster of storms, but disagree on location and timing so decided to VCTS tonight for the best window of seeing something. As the current cluster of showers makes its way across expect lower ceilings to scatter out and VFR is expected this afternoon and evening. Tomorrow morning it is looking like MVFR ceilings will move into the area. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Beda/Wekesser