762
FXUS63 KGID 130909
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
409 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures expected today, especially across the
  southern portions of the forecast area. Heat index values in
  north central Kansas expected to reach 100 to 105 degrees this
  afternoon.

- Low chances (20%) of thunderstorms across north central Kansas
  this afternoon/evening, but IF any develop, they may be on the
  marginally severe side with large hail and strong winds.

- There is a good chance (65-85%) of thunderstorms late Friday
  afternoon into the early hours Saturday morning, some of
  which may be severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- Another chance of storms will be possible Saturday afternoon
  and evening, and a few may be strong to severe as well with
  large hail and strong winds. Thunderstorm chances continue
  each afternoon and evening through next Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Aloft, the region is under generally westerly flow with a broad
ridge across the desert Southwest and an upper low sitting off
the California coast. At the surface, a area of low pressure
sits over the forecast area ahead of a cold front.

Today and tonight...
A cold front is expected to move south across the forecast area
today, and the main question with the forecast is how quickly
the front moves through. A faster forecast passage will keep
northern portions of the area cooler with high temperatures in
south central Nebraska in the low 80s to mid 90s, whereas the
slower solution would favor slightly hotter temperatures with
highs in south central Nebraska more in the upper 80s to near
100 degrees. We split the difference here and tried to get close
to both solutions, but may need to adjust if temperatures get
warmer than initially forecast. From the NE/KS state line and
across north central Kansas, there is higher confidence in the
hotter solution, and there is a 70% chance that heat index
values reach between 100 and 105 degrees this afternoon,
especially across Mitchell and Osborne counties.

As the front moves through the area, north to northeasterly
winds will increase, likely sustained at 15-25 mph and gusting
to 25-30 mph (would not rule out occasional gusts up to 35 or
even 40 mph).

There is a slight chance (~20%) of thunderstorms developing
near the frontal boundary late this afternoon and evening across
north central Kansas. Some of these may be strong to severe
with large hail and damaging winds the main concerns, and the
outlook from SPC highlights north central Kansas in a Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms. If storms do develop, the
main timeframe is expected to be from around 4PM to 10PM.

Friday... A few showers and thunderstorms may linger into
Friday morning, with increased chances of thunderstorms starting
Friday afternoon and evening. The previously mentioned upper
low will evolve into a trough and move northeast into the area
of the Rocky Mountains by Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms will
likely develop over the higher terrain and continue east into
the forecast area Friday evening as a leading shortwave and then
trough move across the region. Expect some of these storms to
be strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind,
especially across southern and western portions of the forecast
area. Severe storms should not be as widespread (but still
possible) northeast as surface dewpoints will be lower and
instability will not be as strong. The Day 2 outlook highlights
a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe storms along and southwest
of a line from Ansley to Kearney to Superior, NE (includes all
6 of our north central Kansas counties) and a Marginal Risk (1
out of 5) northeast of that line. High temperatures Friday will
range from the low 80s to around 90 degrees.

Saturday...
After storms from the previous evening move out of the area
Saturday morning, there will be another chance at thunderstorms,
some possibly strong to severe, Saturday afternoon and evening,
mainly along and east of Highway 281...the day 3 outlook has
that area in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms.
High temperatures will be in the 80s and low 90s.

Sunday through next Wednesday...
There will be several chances for showers and thunderstorms into
the middle of next week with potentially a few upper level
shortwave troughs passing through or just north of the area.
While model variance prevents too many details regarding
thunderstorm timing or severity, models do seem to be trending
the greatest precipitation chances more over south central
Nebraska as opposed to north central Kansas. Highs will
generally be in the mid-80s to mid-90s through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A weak cold front will move through the TAF sites today. The
winds will shift from SW-NE during the period. This afternoon
the winds pickup again and will gust into the mid to upper 20s.
The winds will taper off this evening once again. VFR is
expected through the period. The TAF sites look dry today as
convection is forecast form south of the TAF sites along the
front.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Beda