199
FXUS63 KGID 050741
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
241 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and breezy today and Thursday.

- Shower/t-storm chances return Friday, especially into the
  evening and overnight.

- Additional low-end chances for rain/t-storms through the
  weekend into early next week, but overall below-normal rain
  totals are favored.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Skies are clear across the area early this morning, and should
remain clear through most of the day today. Southwesterly winds
will increase this morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
Ahead of this front, most of our forecast area should still
reach the upper 80s to low 90s by this afternoon...possibly the
warmest day of the year in some spots. Some near-term models
hint at spotty storms developing along the front late this
afternoon, but this is favored to occur just to our east.

Northwest winds will advect drier air into the area for
tonight, potentially allowing temperatures to dip to around 50
degrees in northern portions of the forecast area.

Thursday will also remain dry in the post-frontal airmass.
Breezy northwest winds will continue, especially over
northeastern portions of the forecast area. Highs are expected
to be 5-10 degrees cooler than today, which is right around our
climatological normals for early June (low 80s).

A subtle shortwave moves into the area Friday into Friday
night, potentially bringing us some showers and thunderstorms.
Although there is some chance for rain as early as Friday
morning, the main timeframe will be in the evening through the
overnight hours. CAPE/shear on the 00Z GFS would support some
strong to marginally severe storms, but coverage of storms is
somewhat questionable.

Low-end rain/storm chances continue through the weekend as we
remain in northwesterly flow aloft. That said, most locations
will likely stay dry, and global ensembles overall favor below-
normal rain totals during this timeframe. A bit better chance
for rain arrives Monday night through Tuesday as deterministic
models show a better-defined trough move through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High confidence (95%+) in VFR conditions at GRI/EAR through the
next 24 hours as skies remain mostly clear.

Winds torn from the southwest to the northwest through the day
on Wednesday. Afternoon gusts in the 20-25kt range will be
common.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels