Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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709 FXUS63 KGID 091715 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather through Monday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. - A few low end chances for showers/thunderstorms during the work week with better chances Friday evening through Saturday evening. - Warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 90s both days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Today and Monday... The central Plains will be under northwest flow aloft ahead of an approaching high pressure ridge. A few clouds associated with the weather system to our southeast may linger this morning but mostly clear skies are expected this afternoon through Monday morning. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s and low 80s, and on Monday as the upper ridge moves overhead highs will be warmer, in the low to mid 80s across the area. Monday night and Tuesday... A cold front will move across the region. This does not look particularly strong, and there will be low end shower and thunderstorm chances (20-30%) starting overnight Monday night and moving southeast across the forecast area Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday will be in the 80s. Wednesday and Thursday... Generally zonal flow aloft will be over southern Nebraska and northern Kansas, but very warm temperatures are expected as broad high pressure over the desert Southwest expands to impact the region. These will be the warmest days so far with high temperatures in the 90s expected both days. Areas across north central Kansas are expected to approach 100 degrees Thursday afternoon. Thursday evening through Saturday evening... Models start to diverge at this point, but the next chance of showers and thunderstorms (30-40%) looks to be Thursday evening into Friday as a front moves south through the central and southern Plains. Highs Friday will be a little cooler, in the mid to upper 80s. For Friday afternoon through Saturday evening, model guidance is in better agreement regarding more showers and thunderstorms. An upper trough that will have been sitting off of the California coast since Monday will finally start to move northeast Friday over the northern edge of the previously mentioned broad high pressure. A shortwave disturbance ahead of the front will bring precipitation chances as early as Friday evening, and the cold front looks to move across the forecast area over next weekend. Even though this is day 5 through 7, with this much model consensus this far out, we feel comfortable with the 40-65% chances for precipitation inherited from the NBM model guidance going into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period...with little overall for cloud cover, but any clouds passing through are expected to be in the upper levels. Light winds expected through the period, around 10MPH...generally easterly this afternoon, more variable this evening/overnight, more southerly after sunrise Monday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...ADP