Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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922 FXUS65 KGJT 251114 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 514 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The potential for showers and storms increases today before dissipating later this evening. Gusty winds will be possible with these showers and storms. - Mountain snow is possible generally above 9 kft with the impacts to the roads occurring tonight. Highest chances for upwards of several inches of snow will be in the northern and central mountains. - Temperatures will run below normal through the weekend then increase next week. Precipitation chances remain low through mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 137 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 A trough is approaching from the west and is due to track overhead this afternoon. Ahead of the system, moisture has resulted in high- based showers near the Wyoming state line. Rainfall is having trouble reaching the ground under these showers due to low-level dry air. This band of showers will lift north of the area later this morning, but still hold in place over the Uintas. Showers and storms are expected to develop ahead of the trough and weak cold front during peak heating over the high terrain. The trough enters northeast Utah in the early afternoon and is expected to progress southeastward through the evening. The main focus for lift appears to be along this front. The instability may support storms capable of producing small hail mainly north of I-70, which is where the highest cape is expected. Also, in general winds this afternoon increase across most locations. Any showers and storms that form today could produce 40-50 mph winds. By late evening the trough axis crosses the Divide and showers should begin to dissipate. Some residual moisture and westerly flow may keep orographic precip going into the night along the Divide. Snow levels will range 8-10 kft and it appears accumulation will be possible above these elevations. The highest QPF is across the northern third of the forecast area with the highest values in the Park Range. Several inches of snow is expected, but impacts on the roads should be minimal. The cold front that rolls through keeps high temperatures very similar to today with maybe a slight increase by a few degrees. This is due to a ridge that begins to build over the Great Basin allowing for warm advection. Models are trying to develop isolated showers over the northern mountains tomorrow afternoon. Not much is expected from these potential showers. Elsewhere should be partly cloudy to mostly sunny. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 137 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 Ridging continues to build in over the region Sunday night and will begin a period of sunny skies and warmer temperatures. Despite the ridging, some instability will occur over the mountains along the Continental Divide each afternoon so a chance does exist for some convection there. These chances range from 20 to 40% so it`s safer to say that there`s a higher chance that convection won`t form. Potato, Potaato. By Tuesday, the ridging will have shifted east as a wave moves over the CWA. With minimal moisture or dynamical support, any rain hitting the ground still looks iffy. Friday, models are suggesting the tail end of a cold front dropping down into northern portions of the CWA, bringing increasing chances for some rain and a few storms. This far out, confidence remains low but we`ll keep an eye on how this will develop. One thing that will happen, and has been consistent in all model runs for the last few days, is increasing daytime highs. The warmup begins Monday and continues through Friday. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day as the northern valleys see temps reach the upper 70s/low 80s. The Grand Valley will likely hit 90F while Moab and the rest of SE Utah hits the mid 90s. You folks down in Cortez, Durango and Pagosa Springs will see temps in the mid to high 80s. Along with the higher temps, the usual afternoon breezes of 20 to 25 mph will be common as well. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 514 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 Showers and storms this afternoon could result in brief MVFR conditions. Showers and storms expand in coverage this afternoon and dissipate late evening. Winds will increase aloft leading to some areas of LLWS and mountain wave turbulence. Wind gusts this afternoon approach 30-40 mph, but perhaps as high as 50 mph near showers and storms. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...KJS