308
FXUS63 KGLD 202240
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
440 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms early this evening from
  northwest Kit Carson county to northwest half of Yuma into
  corner of Dundy county.

- Continued very windy Friday with 20%-30% chances for afternoon
  and evening thunderstorms, some of which could become severe.

- Weekend looks to remain hot with highs in the 90s. Could be a
  few severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening.

- Hottest temperatures of the period Monday/Tuesday. Heat index
  values of 100-105 degrees east of Highway 25.

- Not as hot (highs in the 90s) Wednesday/Thursday with better
  chances (20%-40%) for thunderstorms moving through the area
  from the west during the late afternoon to overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Tonight...a small area of moisture in the 700-500mb layer is
forecast to move off the Palmer Divide area and into the northwest
corner of the forecast area (from near Flagler to Wray north) early
this evening, supporting 20%-30% chances for showers and
thunderstorms. The primary hazards will be outflow wind gusts to 60
mph and hail to the size of quarters. Otherwise, it should generally
be clear with low temperatures in the lower 60s to around 70. Breezy
to windy southerly winds will continue generally west of Highway 25.

Friday-Friday night...a monsoonal type pattern sets up with an upper
trough to our west and ridge centered over the southeast states.
Unfortunately, moisture from Mexico is skirted to the south of the
area (oriented from southwest Kansas to northeast Kansas). There is
a bit more moisture in the 700-500mb layer compared to 24 hours ago
that moves into the northwest half of the area from the Raton ridge
area, supporting 20%-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms north
of a line from Kit Carson to Colby and Norton from around noon MDT
to midnight MDT. A few thunderstorms are possible with hail and
strong wind gusts the primary hazards. It will be windy once again
with southerly winds gusting in the 35 to 45 mph range during the
day, steadily decreasing overnight while veering to the southwest to
northwest.

Saturday-Saturday night...500mb flow shifts from southwest flow
aloft to zonal with troughing to our north and an elongated ridge to
our south. Presently, dry weather is forecast. There could be some
isolated flirting with the northwest corner of Yuma and Cheyenne
counties (Colorado) in the 23z-02z timeframe as some mid level
moisture moves off the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide into those
areas. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to
middle 90s with low temperatures in the 60s.

Sunday-Sunday night...broad upper level ridging strengthens over the
area. High temperatures continue to rise with readings in the middle
to upper 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s. It
appears from the GFS/NAM models show a plume of moisture in the 700-
500mb layer moves into parts of the forecast area from south central
Colorado, supporting at least a 20% chances for afternoon
thunderstorms for quite a bit of the area. As a result, I`ve
expanded the areal coverage of possibility from what the NBM loaded.
Any thunderstorm activity quickly dissipates in the early evening
hours. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 95 to 100 degree
range with low temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Monday...500mb flow becomes northwesterly, in between ridging to our
south and troughing along the US/Canada border. A subtle weather
system per GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700-500mb relative humidity forecasts and
qpf moves through the area from the northwest during the very late
afternoon through evening hours, supporting 20% chances for showers
and thunderstorms at the moment. High temperatures are forecast to
be in the upper 90s to around 104. This may be a few degrees too
high given typical mixing at 850mb. Regardless, it will be hot. Heat
index values of 100-102 degrees are forecast generally east of
Highway 25. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s to lower
70s.

Tuesday...not a whole lot of change in the 500mb pattern with
another chance (20%-30%) for late afternoon and overnight
thunderstorms. High temperatures remain the middle 90s to around 101
degree range. Heat index values of 100-103 degrees are forecast east
of Highway 25. Low temperatures again the 60s to lower 70s.

Wednesday...500mb pattern shifts the upper high to the southwest
part of the country with a trough approaching the west coast/pacific
northwest. Thunderstorm chances increase into the 20%-40% range
during the afternoon and overnight hours as a potentially more
organized weather system moves off the Colorado front range and
through the area. High temperatures are forecast to not be as hot as
prior days with readings in the 90s. Heat index values remain in the
90s. Low temperatures fall into the 60s.

Thursday...current guidance indicates another chance (20%-40%) for
thunderstorms to move through the area during the afternoon and
overnight hours from the west. High temperatures remain in the 90s
with low temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 436 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions are forecasted for this TAF period. Winds will be
the main story as breezy to gusty southerly winds will continue
for the majority of the period; although winds do look to relax
at KMCK overnight as they will be further away from a surface
low across E Colorado. Fairly good signal for LLWS from the SW
around 45-50 knots to affect each terminal tonight as well .


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Trigg