484
FXUS63 KGLD 151550
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
950 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon and evening with only a marginal risk for severe
  storms. Locally strong and gusty winds will be the main
  hazard, with a lower risk for hail up to quarter sized.

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday
  afternoon and evening. Coverage will be limited with only a
  few scattered storms expected, but they will be capable of
  producing marginally severe wind gusts of up to 60 mph and
  hail up to quarter sized.

- Hot temperatures return for Sunday with highs in the upper 90s
  and lower 100s.

- Cooler temperatures expected mid-next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Upper trough axis will continue to slowly move east today. Most
convection this afternoon will be in southwest Kansas, but a few
isolated thunderstorms may develop with surface heating from
northeast Colorado into areas south of Interstate 70 in
northwest Kansas. Instability and deep layer shear will be weak
in these areas, so not expecting severe storms. This evening,
the remnants of Front Range convection may drift into western
areas and slowly dissipate through the late evening hours. Some
locally gusty winds may be possible with this activity. High
temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s and lows tonight in
the 60s.

Southwest flow aloft will develop on Sunday. Fairly decent low
level moisture return in the afternoon with southeast winds and
dew points in the 50s and 60s, resulting in moderate instability
across a good portion of the area. Some of the CAMs do show
convection initiating in the afternoon on the leading edge of
the low level moisture axis, aided by a weak shortwave aloft
coming out of Colorado. Confidence is low, but may see an
isolated severe threat with deep layer shear ranging from around
20 kts south of the Interstate but up to 40 kts further north.
Coverage should be scattered at best due to the weak forcing,
ending early Sunday evening. High temperatures will be in the
upper 90s to lower 100s and lows Sunday night in the 60s and
70s.

Southwest flow continues on Monday with a noted increase in the
flow aloft with the jet dropping a bit further south. Another
shortwave trough moves through the flow during the afternoon
and evening. A dry line sets up near the Colorado and Kansas
border area with moderately unstable conditions to the east and
deep layer shear of around 35 kts near it. ECMWF does initiate
convection along the dry line, but at this time it is the only
global model doing so. So while an isolated thunderstorm and
severe threat may eventually materialize, at this time chances
are too low to include a mention. High temperatures will be in
the upper 90s and lows Monday night in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the long term, we are looking at the potential for showers and
thunderstorms daily next week. On Tuesday we begin to see an
increase in rain/storm chances as a cold front moves across the
area during the afternoon. while an upper trough moves
northeast over the Northwest CONUS into Canada while an upper
high builds over the Eastern CONUS. A warm front is expected to
sit over the far northern portions of the area on Thursday as
the shortwaves continue to move over the region and strengthen
a lee trough over the Colorado Plains. The best time frame for
any showers and storms will be during the afternoon and evening
hours Tuesday through Friday, with potential for showers and
storms throughout the day Wednesday. Temperatures on Tuesday
will be in the 80s to mid 90s for highs and the 50s to lower 60s
overnight. Wednesday will have even cooler highs thanks to the
frontal passage with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in
the 50s to lower 60s. Thursday will be a bit warmer with highs
in the 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s. Friday
looks to be the warmest day of the extended period currently
with highs forecast to be in the 90s with overnight lows in the
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 947 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

At this time, both terminals will see VFR conditions. There is
a low chance for storms during the second half of the forecast,
but with low confidence on timing, will leave off for now.

Winds for KGLD, meandering from southwest to southeast around
10kts through the forecast period. LLWS 08z-12z Sunday
200@40kts.

Winds for KMCK, southwest 10-15kts through 07z Sunday, then
light/variable.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...JN