096
FXUS63 KGLD 152032
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
232 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon and evening with only a marginal risk for severe
  storms. Locally strong and gusty winds will be the main
  hazard, with a lower risk for hail up to quarter sized.

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday
  afternoon and evening. Coverage will be limited with only a
  few scattered storms expected, but they will be capable of
  producing marginally severe wind gusts of up to 60 mph and
  hail up to quarter sized.

- Hot temperatures return for Sunday with highs in the upper 90s
  and lower 100s.

- Cooler temperatures expected mid-next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Across the region this afternoon, skies are mostly sunny to sunny,
with some scattered cloud cover persisting ahead of a surface trough
which is currently sitting over the Highway 27 corridor.
Temperatures as of 100 PM MDT are ranging in the 80s with winds
southerly gusting to 20-30 mph at times in the east ahead of the
trough. Along and behind it, light/variable transitions to west-
northwest flow.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are the main wx concerns this
weekend in the short term, with some potential for some convection
to become strong or severe.

For the rest of the afternoon hrs into tonight, the first area
around the 22z-00z timeframe for a 15-20% chance of a few storms
developing will be in the small marginal risk area in the E/SE. This
activity will hinge on the speed and positioning of the
aforementioned surface trough which currently sits over the western
CWA, along with the upper trough which is slowly moving through the
CWA. Latest CAMs do support best initiation east and southeast of
the CWA, but will keep a chance in there for a couple hours before
the activity shifts east.

For the evening hours, the focus shifts to the west-northwest where
isolated/scattered convection is already forming ahead of a cold
front in the central Rockies. CAMs are showing activity increasing
towards 22z as it approaches the western portions of our northeast
Colorado counties. Instability does drop off some as convection
crosses the Colorado border, with soundings showing best threat to
be winds as DCape peaks in the 1600-1800j/kg range around the 21z-
00z timeframe. Convection begins to fall apart from 00z-06z Sunday
and will continue previous shift`s thinking of lowering pops
slightly through 06z as any remaining activity dissipates by 12z
Sunday. Dry air at the surface should preclude any large hail
factors, but small hail can`t be ruled out.

Going into Sunday, the front that settles south into the area
tonight will stall over the region during the day. Southerly flow at
the surface with W/SW flow aloft will create another hot day area-
wide. The stalled front will have rw/trw initiating by late
afternoon into the early evening hours. The Marginal risk for severe
has been expanded to most of the CWA. Wind and hail threats are
present with any storms that develop as DCape values around 1800-
2000j/kg and SBCape around 1700j/kg. PW values in KS/NE where best
convective chances are will increase to an inch plus, throwing in
heavy rainfall potential into the threat mix. Precip expected
through 06z Monday before tapering off. Strong southerly flow
remains overnight, so no big drops for lows expected compared to the
last couple nights.

For temps, looking for above normal highs on Sunday with a range in
the upper 90s to low 100s. Some locales may be close to tying or
even breaking records. Please refer to the Climate section below for
area records on this date. With the airmass being dry, looking for
heat indices to peak at or below forecasted highs. Overnight lows
for tonight will range in the 60s, with warmest areas along/east of
Highway 25. For Sunday night, 60s along and west of Highway 27. East
of there, upper 60s to mid 70s, warmest along and east of
Highway 83.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the extended period, both the GFS and ECMWF show broad upper
ridging over the eastern portions of the country that will give a
southwesterly flow aloft for much of the week, before going more
zonal to end the week. There will be a couple of shortwaves that
will transition across the northern/western periphery of the ridge,
especially from Tuesday onward.

At the surface through midweek, a front pushing into the region will
settle over the KS arean, providing a focus for increased moisture
and chances(60-70%) for convection, especially Tue-Wed nights. The
latter portion of the week will see the front lift north giving way
to hotter conditions and decreased chance for precip, with the focus
north of the Interstate.

Besides the chances for storms, the southerly gradient over the
region Mon-Mon evening will be tight with the potential to see gusts
into the 30-40 mph range. Thursday is similar, but closer to the 25-
35 mph range.

Also, with the threat for storms bringing about hail/wind concerns,
increased to steady PW values through the upcoming week are going to
peak from 1-1.50". With the surface low associated with the front
moving along the Colorado border, highest PW values will be east
into Kansas.

For temps, highs on Monday in the mid to upper 90s will give way to
mainly 80s for Tuesday and 70s on Wednesday due to increased chances
for clouds/precip. Highs expected to increase from there with 80s on
Thursday giving way to 90s again for the end of next week. Overnight
lows in the 60s and 70s for Monday night will give way to mainly 50s
for Tuesday and Wednesday nights, with 60s returning thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 947 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

At this time, both terminals will see VFR conditions. There is
a low chance for storms during the second half of the forecast,
but with low confidence on timing, will leave off for now.

Winds for KGLD, meandering from southwest to southeast around
10kts through the forecast period. LLWS 08z-12z Sunday
200@40kts.

Winds for KMCK, southwest 10-15kts through 07z Sunday, then
light/variable.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The hot, above normal temperatures expected for Sunday, June 16th
could bring about some near record/record readings. Here are the
records for Sunday:


Goodland KS     101F in 2021+

McCook NE       107F in 1946

Hill City KS    112F in 1946

Burlington CO   103F in 1952

Colby KS        107F in 1946

Tribune KS      103F in 1946

Yuma CO          98F in 1995

A (+) denotes a record for multiple years

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...JN