Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
836 FXUS63 KGLD 140747 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 147 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will develop in northeast Colorado by mid afternoon, reaching the Colorado and Kansas border area by 6 PM MT, and sweeping across the rest of the area this evening. The primary hazard will be destructive winds in excess of 60 mph and locally up to 90 mph. Some large hail may accompany initial storm development in the afternoon and early evening, as well as a tornado or two, before merging into clusters. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible as well as flash flooding. - There is a marginal risk for a severe storm or two Saturday afternoon and early evening in northwest Kansas east of a Norton to Leoti line. Stronger storms will be capable of hail up to quarter size and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. - Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Overnight showers and isolated thunderstorms appear to be the result of a weak shortwave trough topping the ridge axis. This activity will continue through this morning as the wave moves east. May see a break in the precipitation from late morning through mid afternoon, then convection develops in Colorado 21-22z with the next, and much stronger, shortwave moving out of the Rockies. Storms reach the Colorado-Kansas border area around 00z and then sweep through the forecast area Friday evening. The environment will be moderately unstable, ensemble mean values running around 2000-2500 j/kg with some pockets in excess of 3000 j/kg, and deep layer shear of 30-40 kts. CAMs suggest two possible clusters developing, one in northeast Colorado that moves northeast into Nebraska, and more of a linear cluster that moves across northwest Kansas this evening. Either cluster will be capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, with some of the model output showing gusts of up to 90 mph possible. The potential for destructive winds will be the main hazard. In addition, large hail may accompany initial discrete supercells that form before merging into a cluster, as well as a tornado or two. Finally, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will become a concern into the evening hours, with 90th percentile QPF of 2-3 inches from Yuma County, Colorado, eastward into the Kansas and Nebraska border area. Higher percentile QPF amounts further south are generally around 1 inch with the faster moving linear cluster, except in the Greeley and Wichita county areas where it is around 2 inches. The severe threat should end by 06z and precipitation ending by around 09z. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lows tonight in the 60s. The upper trough axis slowly moves through the area on Saturday, ending up near the eastern zones Saturday afternoon, with a weak reflection at the surface. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop with best chances east of a Norton to Leoti line in northwest Kansas with weak convergence along the surface trough. The environment will only be marginally conducive to severe storms, with instability topping off at around 1500 j/kg and deep layer shear of around 20-25 kts. Cannot completely rule out an isolated low-end severe storm or two, but overall severe threat is low. Storms should move out relatively early Saturday evening as the trough pushes east. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s and lows Saturday night in the 60s. On Sunday, will have a weak southwesterly flow aloft and a warm front surging northward at the surface. The front will herald the return of extreme heat, with highs back into the upper 90s and lower 100s. Assuming the surface front stays north of the area as the models indicate, in central Nebraska, will only see slight chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night with a weak shortwave moving through the flow. However, if the front is further south, precipitation chances may be higher, particularly in southwest Nebraska. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the 60s and 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Saturday we will see the leftovers over the upper-level low move through and out of the area. This could sparks up some showers and lower end storms. The greatest potential hazard would be if this precipitation moved over areas that had been rained on the previous couple of day, creating a flooding risk. Sunday, the low will clear the area and we will be under weak southwesterly flow aloft. This will give us about a 15-20% daily chance of precipitation due to shortwaves in the evenings, but nothing highly organized is expected until the weak flow is disrupted, likely Tuesday afternoon. Around this time, the pressure gradient tightens up as the low over the NW CONUS pushes farther inland. This would work to amplify any disturbances and increase chances for PoPs. By mid-next week, we could see the low moving into the Great Plains and sending a cold front through the region. This would spark up some storms and start cooling temperatures down some. High temperatures until mid-next week look to be in the low 90s to low 100s. After the cold front moves through, after Tuesday, we will likely only warm into the 80s and low 90s. Overnight temperatures will follow a similar pattern and drop into the 60s to low 70s each night, save for Sunday night. Sunday night, additional cloud cover and fairly strong winds from the south are expected to keep temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Gusts overnight could get up to 30 kts. Behind the cold front, lows will cool down into the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1050 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 GLD: Aside from a potential for MVFR-IFR ceilings a few hours on either side of sunrise Friday morning.. and a potential for thunderstorms Friday evening (00-06Z Sat).. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail. NE winds at 10-17 knots this evening will veer to the E (overnight) and SE (Friday). MCK: Aside from a potential for thunderstorms Friday evening (00-06Z Sat).. VFR conditions will prevail. NE winds at 10-17 knots this evening will veer to the E (overnight) and SE (Friday). && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...BV