Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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423 FXUS63 KGLD 131822 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1222 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures persist across the area today, mainly south of I-70 where highs will reach the upper 90s to lower 100s. - Scattered storms will develop in northeast Colorado and south of Interstate 70 in northwest Kansas this afternoon. A few storms will be capable of producing hail up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts through the evening. - More widespread severe weather is anticipated Friday afternoon and evening. Storms will develop in Colorado during the afternoon and move through the remainder of the area Friday night. Some of these storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will also be possible. - Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1037 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 With the passage of a weak frontal boundary through the area this morning, have opted to decrease forecasted highs by a few degrees area-wide. Still looking for areas south of I-70 to be warmest for today. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Shallow cold front moves through the area this morning then stalls in Colorado and along/just south of Highway 96 in Kansas. Shortwave trough will come over the ridge axis with convective initiation occurring in the 20-22z time frame along the front. The environment will be weakly unstable with around 30 kts of deep layer shear. Moisture will be somewhat limited and storms high based, posing primarily a risk for severe wind gusts as they drift eastward this evening. Other storms may develop in the post frontal upslope regime as far west as the the Front Range. These storms will be in a highly sheared environment and a supercell or two is possible, potentially impacting Colorado counties in the evening with a large hail/high wind/brief tornado risk. Showers and thunderstorms wind down by 06z. High temperatures today will barely be impacted by the so-called cold front, ranging from the lower 90s in southwest Nebraska to the lower 100s south of Interstate 70. Lows tonight will be in the 60s. For Friday, a few morning showers or isolated thunderstorms are possible, but better chances will hold off until Friday afternoon. The ridge axis will move east with a fairly strong shortwave trough coming out of Colorado behind it. Expect to see a rapid increase in coverage in Colorado by late afternoon and overspreading the remainder of the area Friday evening. Models forecast moderate to strong instability to develop, 25000-3500 j/kg, and deep layer shear of 30-40 kts. Given the strong lift from the shortwave and these environmental parameters, severe thunderstorms seem likely, with very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. CAMs show a couple of clusters developing Friday evening, one lifting northeast into Nebraska and another moving east across northwest Kansas. Heavy rainfall will also be possible, with mean precipitation amounts for the event ranging from around a half in Colorado to around 1 inch in southwest Nebraska. 90th percentile QPF is between 2 and 3 inches in southwest Nebraska and along the Kansas and Nebraska border area with the northern cluster of storms, as well as generally south of Highway 40 in northwest Kansas with the second cluster. Severe and flooding threats should end by around 06z with just lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows Friday night ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s. The shortwave trough axis will be slowly moving across the area Saturday morning and be located in eastern forecast area by the afternoon and time of peak heating. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in weak instability and weak shear during the afternoon, with best chances in the east where there will also be some surface convergence near a trough/diffuse dry line. Cannot completely discount a marginal risk for a severe storm or two in those eastern areas during the afternoon, but overall risk seems fairly low for severe storms. Additional rainfall amounts on Saturday are up to a quarter of an inch in eastern areas (Norton to Leoti) and up to a tenth of an inch in western areas. Precipitation winds down and moves east fairly early Saturday evening. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s and lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Saturday we will see the leftovers over the upper-level low move through and out of the area. This could sparks up some showers and lower end storms. The greatest potential hazard would be if this precipitation moved over areas that had been rained on the previous couple of day, creating a flooding risk. Sunday, the low will clear the area and we will be under weak southwesterly flow aloft. This will give us about a 15-20% daily chance of precipitation due to shortwaves in the evenings, but nothing highly organized is expected until the weak flow is disrupted, likely Tuesday afternoon. Around this time, the pressure gradient tightens up as the low over the NW CONUS pushes farther inland. This would work to amplify any disturbances and increase chances for PoPs. By mid-next week, we could see the low moving into the Great Plains and sending a cold front through the region. This would spark up some storms and start cooling temperatures down some. High temperatures until mid-next week look to be in the low 90s to low 100s. After the cold front moves through, after Tuesday, we will likely only warm into the 80s and low 90s. Overnight temperatures will follow a similar pattern and drop into the 60s to low 70s each night, save for Sunday night. Sunday night, additional cloud cover and fairly strong winds from the south are expected to keep temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Gusts overnight could get up to 30 kts. Behind the cold front, lows will cool down into the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1000 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 For KGLD, looking for mainly VFR conditions through much of the forecast period. MVFR ceilings probable from 13z Friday onward. Also, scattered thunderstorms are also possible this evening. With confidence on timing/placement of any storms low, will leave off mentioning and update later in the forecast. Winds, north 10-15kts through 20z, then east-northeast 10-20kts. From 13z Friday onward, east-southeast around 10kts. For KMCK, VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds, northerly 15-25kts through 20z before shifting northeast. From 00z-14z Friday, northeast around 10kts then shifting to the southeast thereafter. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...JN