Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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135 FXUS63 KGLD 151113 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 513 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening with only a marginal risk for severe storms. Locally strong and gusty winds will be the main hazard, with a lower risk for hail up to quarter sized. - There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Coverage will be limited with only a few scattered storms expected, but they will be capable of producing marginally severe wind gusts of up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter sized. - Hot temperatures return for Sunday with highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s. - Cooler temperatures expected mid-next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Upper trough axis will continue to slowly move east today. Most convection this afternoon will be in southwest Kansas, but a few isolated thunderstorms may develop with surface heating from northeast Colorado into areas south of Interstate 70 in northwest Kansas. Instability and deep layer shear will be weak in these areas, so not expecting severe storms. This evening, the remnants of Front Range convection may drift into western areas and slowly dissipate through the late evening hours. Some locally gusty winds may be possible with this activity. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s and lows tonight in the 60s. Southwest flow aloft will develop on Sunday. Fairly decent low level moisture return in the afternoon with southeast winds and dew points in the 50s and 60s, resulting in moderate instability across a good portion of the area. Some of the CAMs do show convection initiating in the afternoon on the leading edge of the low level moisture axis, aided by a weak shortwave aloft coming out of Colorado. Confidence is low, but may see an isolated severe threat with deep layer shear ranging from around 20 kts south of the Interstate but up to 40 kts further north. Coverage should be scattered at best due to the weak forcing, ending early Sunday evening. High temperatures will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s and lows Sunday night in the 60s and 70s. Southwest flow continues on Monday with a noted increase in the flow aloft with the jet dropping a bit further south. Another shortwave trough moves through the flow during the afternoon and evening. A dry line sets up near the Colorado and Kansas border area with moderately unstable conditions to the east and deep layer shear of around 35 kts near it. ECMWF does initiate convection along the dry line, but at this time it is the only global model doing so. So while an isolated thunderstorm and severe threat may eventually materialize, at this time chances are too low to include a mention. High temperatures will be in the upper 90s and lows Monday night in the 60s and 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 223 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 For the long term, we are looking at the potential for showers and thunderstorms daily next week. On Tuesday we begin to see an increase in rain/storm chances as a cold front moves across the area during the afternoon. while an upper trough moves northeast over the Northwest CONUS into Canada while an upper high builds over the Eastern CONUS. A warm front is expected to sit over the far northern portions of the area on Thursday as the shortwaves continue to move over the region and strengthen a lee trough over the Colorado Plains. The best time frame for any showers and storms will be during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday through Friday, with potential for showers and storms throughout the day Wednesday. Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 80s to mid 90s for highs and the 50s to lower 60s overnight. Wednesday will have even cooler highs thanks to the frontal passage with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Thursday will be a bit warmer with highs in the 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the extended period currently with highs forecast to be in the 90s with overnight lows in the 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 512 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the day and into the early evening, but the probability of directly impacting either terminal is low. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...KMK AVIATION...024