Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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517 FXUS63 KGLD 100351 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 951 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog is possible in western portions of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado towards sunrise Monday morning. - There are a few chances for storms in Eastern Colorado during the evening hours on Monday, with a low chance for a severe storm or two. - Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with near triple digit high temperatures. - Next system looks to impact the area Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 829 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 With the latest guidance showing the potential for some patchy fog in western portions of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in CO after 09z Monday, have introduced some in the forecast during the 09z-15z Monday timeframe. At this time, it does not look to push too far east towards the CO/KS border but will continue to monitor. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Early this afternoon an upper level ridge was centered over the Four Corners Region. Various areas of cloud cover were rotating around the ridge. There continued to be a corridor of low clouds on the western edge of the high pressure over Eastern CO. This afternoon a very pleasant day will continue with the light east to southeast winds. Tonight the winds will turn to the south as the surface ridge continues to move east over Nebraska. Over night low clouds, and possibly some fog, may form over Eastern CO in response to the moisture advection. Any fog will be confined to CO. Monday will be another very pleasant day. The ridge currently to the west will shift slightly to the east as it moves over the forecast area. Due to the south winds, WAA will be stronger allowing for temperatures to be warmer than today. Monday evening a weak upper level short wave trough will move through Nebraska, dipping down into the forecast area. Isentropic analysis does not show much for lifting/forcing with this short wave trough. At the same time the instability will be declining as the sun sets. Deep layer shear is 20 kts, which may support strong to low end severe thunderstorms. Confidence is 20% for strong to severe thunderstorms to form due to the rather weak deep layer shear in place and the declining instability. The upper level short wave trough will fill as it moves through the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Tuesday through Sunday the upper level ridge builds over the forecast area then to the east. During this timeframe upper level short wave troughs will move over the forecast area. However the environment will be too dry for storms to form until Thursday. Precipitation chances return during the latter half of the week as upper level short wave troughs move through. The strongest upper level short wave trough looks to move through Saturday based on the latest data. There has not been much change in the upper air weather pattern in comparison to the prior model run. However this is two days later in the week than what was shown a few days ago. Confidence is still on the low side regarding timing, however this does raise confidence overall regarding a stronger upper level short wave trough moving through during the end of the week. When this trough moves through the Plains, confidence is on the high side there will be severe weather occurring as a result. As the ridge builds to the east temperatures will warm through the week. Highs reaching 100 degrees may occur. A cool front will move through toward the end of the week with the upper level short wave trough. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 945 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period, except for some MVFR ceilings from 11z-15z Monday. Winds, southeast around 10kts through 11z Monday, then south 10-15kts. Gusts up to 25-30kts from 15z Mon-00z Tue. For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds, light/variable through 13z Monday, then south 10-15kts. Gusts to 25kts from 16z Mon-02z Tue. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...JN