224
FXUS63 KGLD 181906
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
106 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in far eastern areas,
  Hill City to Gove, near a cold front where storms are expected
  to develop by mid afternoon. If storms develop there, large
  hail and damaging winds would be the primary risks.

- Heavy rainfall is expected from late tonight through the
  overnight hours for areas south of Highway 24 in northwest
  Kansas. Generally 1-2 inches is expected, with some local
  amounts in excess of 4 inches possible. As a result, a Flash
  Flood Watch has been issued for that area through Wednesday
  morning.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely Wednesday
  night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, with the best
  chances north of Interstate 70, including southwest Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

In the near term, the strong winds associated with the low level
jet will gradually diminish through the remainder of the
overnight. The cold front in northeast Colorado will reach the
Kansas border before sunrise and continue southeast this morning
and afternoon. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms may develop
along the front during the morning to early afternoon. However,
the main convection will wait until around 21-22z with the
entire length of the front likely to initiate. At the time, the
front should be just south of the area. However, any slight
variation in frontal location or convective initiation timing
could put the line of storms just into the far southeast
counties, Hill City to Gove in northwest Kansas, where there is
a slight risk for severe storms capable of large hail, damaging
winds and a brief tornado. Those storms will continue to move
southeast with the front through early this evening. Behind the
front, most of the area will see dry conditions through the
afternoon with cooler temperatures and breezy north to northwest
winds. Highs will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s behind
the front, to the upper 80s ahead of it.

Tonight, surface winds will veer to northeast and east in the
post frontal upslope regime. A weak perturbation in the
southwest flow aloft combined with outflow from the storms to
the south will be enough for numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms to develop from the late evening hours and through
the overnight. Heavy rainfall is forecast by the models for the
area generally south of Highway 24 in northwest Kansas. HREF
neighborhood probabilities for 3-hour QPF in excess of 3" at 09z
and again at 12z show a low probability centered over that
area. HREF probabilities for greater than 2" is running around
20-40%. In addition, 06z HRRR is showing very heavy QPF in the
same area. All signs indicate flash flooding will be a concern
so issued a Flash Flood Watch for the general area where
heaviest rainfall is expected. Lows tonight will be in the 50s.

Showers and thunderstorms continue into Wednesday morning, but
the signals for heavy rainfall shift southeast and out of the
area. So ended the Flash Flood Watch at 18z. Precipitation
chances become more scattered by the afternoon with additional
rainfall amounts of less than a quarter of an inch. Instability
will be quite limited in most of the area, but some of the
models show the old front nosing north into Logan and Gove
counties during the afternoon with some weak to moderate
instability and deep layer shear of 20-30 kts. Confidence is on
the low side, but there may be a marginal risk for a severe
storm or two Wednesday afternoon generally south of Highway 40
in northwest Kansas. High temperatures will be in the 60s with
cloudy skies. Wednesday night, the front lifts north across the
area with a weak shortwave trough moving through in the
southwest flow aloft. As a result, showers and isolated
thunderstorms will increase in coverage once again. Mean QPF
amounts Wednesday night are generally between a quarter and a
half inch, though higher percentiles suggest 1-2 inches
possible, with best chances for the heavier amounts north of
Interstate 70 this time around including southwest Nebraska. Low
temperatures will be in the 50s.

On Thursday will see subtle height rises as the strengthening
ridge over the eastern CONUS nudges into the central plains.
Precipitation chances should be limited to any lingering showers
in the morning, then late afternoon to early evening scattered
storms in Colorado rotating around the ridge into western
Nebraska. Instability and shear parameters are weak and not
expecting severe storms at this time. Temperatures will warm
back into the middle to upper 80s lows Thursday night will be in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Into the weekend, flow aloft veers towards the west-northwest as
troughing slides east and high pressure stretches across the
southern CONUS. Weak waves moving through the flow will allow for
slight chance (generally around 15-20%) afternoon-evening
showers/storms each day.

For temperatures, the gradual warming trend continues with low-mid
90s over the weekend followed by possible return of triple digit
heat by the start of the work week. Low temperatures are forecast to
be generally in the 60s to perhaps a few low 70s east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through
about 08z. Northerly winds gusting to 30kts at taf issuance will
continue this afternoon before veering to the northeast around
13kts this evening through 08z. After 09z, sub VFR cigs are
expected as stratus expands across the area. Rain showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible along with some
light reductions in visibility due to mist (BR). Winds will
remain from the northeast around 15kts with perhaps some higher
gusts.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through
about 11z. Northerly winds gusting to 30kts at taf issuance will
continue this afternoon before veering to the northeast around
12kts through 11z. After 12z, sub VFR cigs are expected as
stratus expands across the area. Rain showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will be possible along with some light reductions
in visibility due to mist (BR). Winds will remain from the
northeast around 11kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight through
     Wednesday morning for KSZ014>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99