Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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368 FXUS63 KGLD 231019 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 419 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop Thursday afternoon and evening. - Cold front moves through Thursday evening and night with more severe thunderstorms possible along the front across eastern counties and non thunderstorm wind gusts up to 50 mph across the western counties. - For the holiday weekend, expecting a chance for storms both Saturday and Sunday, with some severe storms possible. && .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 For the overnight hours, latest 00z guidance is showing increasing moisture in the 700-500mb layer moving across the area from far eastern Colorado. Its anticipated that this moisture source will work with 2km CAPE values around 500 J/kg and limited CIN to at least support 20%-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly along the I-70 corridor (and neighboring counties to the north) as well as Norton/Graham counties. Presently, severe weather is not expected. See Fire Weather section below for updated Red Flag Warning Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 110 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Weak mid level ridging is present across the region currently with a surface high in the lower levels; both of which are keeping the skies virtually clear and the weather quiet. As we head into the afternoon and evening a weak wave will move off of the Front Range and onto the Plains. Winds will turn to the south and begin advecting some moisture back into the area as a surface trough develops; if everything can phase in time then some isolated showers and storms may become a possibility around 01Z across eastern Colorado and into NW Kansas. Little if any rainfall is currently forecasted; will maintain with silent pops due to concerns about the wave and the moisture return not phasing. As the surface trough begins to deepen some tonight, the southerly winds will become breezy with sustained winds around 20 knots at times. This is forecast to help keep the atmosphere mixed keeping overnight lows in the 40s to 50s. The trough tomorrow looks to deepens into a surface low across SW Kansas. Ahead of the low moisture will continue to return from the Gulf of Mexico. A stout dryline will become present through the afternoon which serve to be the focus for initiation for the next round of severe thunderstorm potential. Confidence is increasing in the dryline setting up near the Highway 25 corridor from Trenton through Leoti during the early to mid afternoon. Discrete storms are forecast to develop along the dryline with large hail around 2 inches in diameter damaging winds being the primary threats as the NAM shows 2500+ j/kg of MUCAPE with 40-45 knots of effective shear, steep lapse rate in excess of 8 c/km and straight line hodographs. These hodographs would support splitting of storms as well. If a discrete cell can continue through 00Z (east of Highway 83) some tornado threat may develop as the LLJ strengthens increasing the streamwise vorticity. This scenario is seen in the 12Z NAMNEST with elongating hodograph signature as well. I`ve strongly used the NAM and NAMNEST for my forecast as these models have done extremely will with convection and location of the dryline thus far this spring. It is also interesting to note that the HRRR has been consistently not initiating any storms along the dryline, so that scenario is possible but at this time thinking it is unlikely. Into Thursday evening and night, a cold front then surges south through the area. A second round of potentially severe storms may occur along the cold front as well, as long as as the area remains in the warm/moist sector (mainly east of Highway 25). Plentiful MUCAPE and shear remains in place as more of a line/cluster pushes south across the area. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats. If any bowing segments occurs with the line then wind driven hail may become more of a concern. Shower and storm development back west across the front is a little more uncertain due to the dry air in place; NAM and GFS both suggest 8-11 mb pressure rises over 3 hours with and behind the front. Non thunderstorm wind gusts around 50 mph looks to occur with this. Blowing dust is also of limited concern due to the recent heavy rains in the main dust source region of northeast Colorado. Some fire spread potential will need to be monitored behind the dry line as well as RH values look to fall into the low teens and deeply mixed inverted v soundings look to help bring down wind gusts around 30 mph. After collaboration with surrounding offices, opted to hold off on any fire weather highlights due to the continued spring greenup and most importantly the recent rains. A portion of western Cheyenne county Colorado also continues to lie in the 40th percentile ERC (Energy Release Component); however nothing notable was being seen in calculating the GFDI with mid range "Very High" fire spread numbers being seen which does lead me to believe that the recent rains have helped the area mitigating the burn ready fuels. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 419 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Storms, potentially severe, are forecast for the holiday weekend. Heading into the next work week, a drying/warming trend is anticipated as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead. For Saturday, a somewhat similar setup to Thursday is forecast where southwest portions of the area will experience fire weather conditions west of the dryline while elsewhere could see the potential for development of severe thunderstorms. Storms could potentially form and progress eastward off the dryline in the afternoon-evening favoring locations along/east of Hwy 83, but also will want to monitor the potential for storms developing later in the evening as some forcing could be provided by the 700-850 mb wave swinging through possibly impacting more of the area. SPC has placed areas generally along/east of Hwy 83 in a marginal (hazard level 1/5) risk for severe weather while along/east of Hwy 283 are in a slight (hazard level 2/5) risk. The main system remains forecast to move through in the Sunday- Monday timeframe, providing 30-50% PoPs Sunday. Cooler temperatures expected before a drying/warming trend at the start of the work week with ridging building in. More storm chances return Tuesday- Wednesday as embedded waves traverse through the flow. For temperatures, middle 70s to upper 80s expected for highs on Saturday, slightly cooler in the 70s Sunday, then warming again Monday onward, with 80s for most of the area by Tuesday. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 40s to low-mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 950 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. South-southeast winds of 12-15kts with some higher gusts are anticipated from taf issuance through sunrise. From 12z-00z, southerly winds will slowly veer to the southwest, gusting up to 30kts. After 01z, winds are currently forecast to quickly shift to the northwest with gusts up to 35kts as a cold front moves through. Presently, no precipitation is anticipated. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A southeast wind up to 10kts is forecast from taf issuance through 13z. From 14z-00z, southerly winds gusting up to 30kts are forecast. After 01z, winds are currently forecast to quickly shift to the northwest with gusts up to 30kts as a cold front moves through. At this time, confidence is too low to pinpoint when/if the terminal would see showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity or over the terminal. Presently, it appears the 23z-03z timeframe would have the best chance based on the latest data. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 850 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Recent coordination with our fire weather partners suggest the continuance of Fire Weather Watches/Red Flag Warnings until further notice. On Thursday, the combination of dry fuels, southwest winds gusting 25 to 35 mph and relative humidity values as low as 10 percent will create critical fire weather conditions. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado as well as Sherman, Wallace, Greeley counties in Kansas from 17z-03z. A strong cold front will move through the warning area Thursday evening, abruptly shifting winds to the north to northwest with gusts generally up to 40 mph, possibly a bit higher. This will create unpredictable fire behavior for any fires ongoing. First responders stay up to date on the position and timing of the cold frontal passage should any fires occur. Despite favorable wind and relative humidity forecasts, we`ll be leaving Yuma county and Cheyenne county Kansas out of the Red Flag Warning. These area have been hit hard by high rainfall amounts in Yuma county a few feet of accumulating hail in spots. NASA Sport 0-10km soil moisture remains rather high and would likely not support explosive fire growth at this time. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for KSZ013-027-041. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...