Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 172125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
325 PM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Tonight-Sunday...some mid and high clouds move into the area from
the southwest with possibly a thick deck of cirrus toward sunrise.
The latest high res guidance is showing stratus moving southwest
into parts of our area with sharply reduced visibilities, starting
around 07z-08z and continuing through mid morning Sunday. Have
added areas of fog accordingly. Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph
tonight with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

On Sunday mid level dry slot moves into the area from the
southwest and should help in preventing any thunderstorm activity
til perhaps the very late afternoon and closer to sunset when low
pressure emerges over southeast Colorado associated with a larger
upper trough. Enough moisture may be present to generate showers
and thunderstorms generally west of a line from about Yuma to
Colby and Oakley initially, slowly expanding in coverage though
sunset. Winds increase into the breezy to windy category from the
southeast during the day. High temperatures in the low to upper

Sunday night-Monday night...models maintain a forecast track taking
the center of the storm system east along the Kansas/Oklahoma border
through Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms increase in
coverage through midnight with a change over to snow from west to
east as colder air filters in behind the storm. North winds increase
into the 15 to 30 mph range with higher gusts, strongest winds
generally along and west of the CO/KS border. This will likely
produce some reduced visibilities in snow and blowing snow.

For Monday the storm system is well east of the area but we`re under
the impact of an upper trough which will contribute to additional
snow or a mix of rain and snow in the morning. Question is will
temperatures warm enough in the afternoon to completely change the
precip type to liquid or like on Friday keep temperatures under the
stronger dynamics favorable for snow. I trended temperatures down a
few degrees prolonging potential for snow but it may not be enough.
Right now the afternoon has mainly rain as precip type. Currently
have high temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds will
continue from the north in the 15 to 25 mph range with higher gusts.

Precipitation comes to an end from west to east by midnight as drier
air moves in. Little if any additional moisture is expected. Low
temperatures look to range from the upper teens to low 20s west,
low to mid 20s east of the CO/KS border.

Right now total snowfall accumulations range from a trace to 3
inches, highest in Yuma county. ECWMF/SREF/GFS/NAM 24 hour snowfall
amounts are quite a bit higher. Experimental HRRR snowfall amounts
similar to current forecast. CIPS analogs also show high
probabilities of 2 inch amounts with very little support for
anything over 4 inches. Am hesitant to make any adjustments up or
down from current forecast given at least continuity between model
runs and neighboring offices. Still have time to adjust if need be.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Upper ridge over the Great Basin Tuesday will move east and
amplify as it approaches the Plains on Thursday. A fast moving,
weak shortwave trough will come through on Friday as the ridge
moves east. Models have gone dry with this system, apparently due
to a lack of moisture. So, the extended period is currently dry.
Temperatures will start near normal on Tuesday and warm to much
above normal by Thursday and Friday, then cool off a bit for
Saturday behind a cold front associated with the shortwave. Only
hazardous weather potential will occur on Friday, with critical
fire weather conditions possible due to low humidity and gusty
westerly winds.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. However, will
need to watch the 11z-16z timeframe as enough low level moisture
may be enough to create mvfr/ifr cigs. Otherwise, a southeast wind
at taf issuance will increase and gust 25-30kts from 20z-23z.
After 00z winds remain from the southeast near 15kts through 14z
then increase with gusts over 20kts by 15z further increasing
toward the end of the taf period.

KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. From taf issuance through
about 20z stratus just east of the terminal should remain
scattered but could create ifr cigs with light and variable winds.
Otherwise a light southeast wind is expected through 16z before
increasing with gusts 20-25kts from the southeast at the end of
the taf period.


Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Critical/near critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday
afternoon as relative humidity values below 20 percent and south
to southeast winds gusting 20 to 25 mph combine generally along
and south of a line from near Flagler to Cheyenne Wells to near

Critical and near critical fire weather conditions remain possible
Friday afternoon as relative humidity values in the 10-15 percent
range combine with west and northwest winds gusting to 30 mph
along and south of a line from Flagler to Burlington to Russell

Critical fire conditions are possible Saturday afternoon from
Flagler to Tribune and points west.




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