214
FXUS63 KGLD 030435
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1035 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional chance of severe hail east of Highway 25 in Kansas
  Monday afternoon.

- A less active weather pattern develops Tuesday through Friday
  with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Outflow boundary emanating to the west from earlier day convection
is currently the main mesoscale feature that may help make or break
today`s severe weather potential. The overall magnitude of the
severe threat for today remains rather conditional; but still
remains the potential for significant severe weather to occur.
Dryline thus far has moved very little with majority of the area
remaining in southerly flow with gusty winds helping keep the
moisture in place. With the moisture remaining in place; have
lowered temperatures into the mid to upper 80s from the
previous forecast, which may still be to generous given
anticipated cumulus field development and more stable air
behind the westward propagating outflow boundary.

All of this does play a role into thunderstorm development as well
as RAP soundings do show a CAP in place with convective temperatures
in the low 90s. There is also concern for dry air aloft moving into
the area which would hinder intensification of any updrafts due to
entrainment. Outflow as well will play a role into whether or not
specific areas will see initial storm development if it continues to
push west, however if it stalls then this may help enhance
additional lift and make convective initiation a bit more than a
single cell.

With all of this said, there may be 3 potential scenarios that will
play out:

1) Outflow continues to trek west stabilizing the environment
for the afternoon storm threat, would then have to watch for
northern areas for clusters moving SSE from the Nebraska
Panhandle.

2) Outflow stalls, but dry air entrainment "chokes off" updrafts and
helps keep the CAP in place; but still have the Nebraska Panhandle
storms move into the area.

3) Dry air is slower to move into the area, outflow stalls and
initial cells are more widespread/intense; then round 2 with the
Nebraska Panhandle activity.

As for hazards, with the (potential) afternoon storms. These should
remain more isolated with supercell potential initially producing
very large hail up to Tennis Balls, damaging wind gusts and
potentially tornadoes especially if a storm interacts with the
outflow boundary or if multiple cells are present through storm
mergers. At 18Z, the KGLD VAD wind profile does support this
potential with 0-3 SRH of 180 and 0-1 SRH of 100 m2/s2. With the
anticipation of this increasing especially near the outflow
boundary and as the main shortwave approaches. At this time the
area of potential greater tornado threat looks to lie west of
Highway 25 but north of I-70 (Yuma, Dundy, Cheyenne (KS),
Rawlins, Thomas and Kit Carson counties).

For the potential for activity moving in from the Nebraska Panhandle
after sunset. At this time thinking that this should favor more of
the northeast counties (Hitchcock, Red Willow, Norton, Decatur).
This looks to be mainly a damaging wind threat with 70+ mph wind
gusts possible and heavy rainfall, which may exacerbate and
flooding issues from the past several days of heavy rainfall.

Will also have to monitor for potential redevelopment across the
area overnight as a cold front sags through the area and interacts
with the LLJ; at this time not anticipating this to be severe
but only a heavy rain potential. Due to uncertainty regarding
this afternoons mesoscale features and potential "interruptions"
to the environment will keep this as slight chance pops for
now.


Monday, zonal upper level flow looks to be in place. Some surface
convergence during the afternoon hours may bring some additional
thunderstorm development primarily east of Highway 25. Due to
lack of upper level support thinking is that this shouldn`t be
along lived event like today. Some severe threat may be present
with moisture remaining in place MUCAPE in excess of 3500 j/kg
and wind shear of 25-30 knots. Highs for tomorrow look to be in
the mid to upper 80s but with less wind as wind should remain
mainly light and variable. Another wave then moves across the
area Monday night and into Tuesday morning bringing another
round of thunderstorms; severe weather is not anticipated at
this time with that activity.

Split flow, then dominates the area Tuesday as temperatures
again rise into the 80s for all of the area. Not currently
seeing any signs for precipitation. Winds will become breezy
from the NW around 20 mph gusting 30-35 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Wednesday...500mb heights slowly rise as upper level ridging
strengthens over the western half of the country. There is a hint of
moisture in the 700-500mb layer moving through the area from the
north during the day along or immediately behind some cooler air and
wind shift. Not much instability to work with and old school Totals
Totals only in the lower 40s and K Index values 20-25 dont generally
support any convection. Presently, the forecast is dry and thats
seems reasonable this moment. 850mb temperatures in the 25C to 32C
range support high temperatures in the 90s. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday...not a whole lot of change in the 500mb pattern. Daytime
hours look to be precipitation free with a 20% chance for showers
and thunderstorms to develop during the night as 850-500mb moisture
increases from the southeast while weather disturbances move east
off the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridges and into our area. 850mb
temperatures are a little cooler, ranging from 19C to 27C. This
would typically support high temperatures in the 80s. Low
temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s.

Friday...the tongue of better moisture in the 850-500mb layer over
much of the area in the morning slowly moves east through the
morning and out of the area by late afternoon with associated 20%
pops with it. The next weather system per 700-500mb relative
humidity forecasts emerges off the Colorado front range and
potentially into far eastern Colorado by 00z Saturday, moving
across the remainder of the area during the night with 30%-40%
chances of showers and thunderstorms with it. High temperatures
remain above normal in the 80s to around 90 with low
temperatures in the 50s.

Saturday...generally speaking, any mornings showers across the
eastern half of the area should move out as the next weather system
moves off the Colorado front range and into perhaps far eastern
Colorado by the end of the day, continuing east across the entire
area during the night in some form or fashion. Presently, 20% pops
are forecast in the morning with 40% chances across far eastern
Colorado late afternoon and 40%-50% chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the night. High temperatures are forecast to be
in the 80 to 85 degree range with low temperatures in the 50s.

Sunday...similar large scale scenario as Saturday with any morning
showers/thunderstorms exiting in by late morning/early afternoon
then waiting for next wave to move across from eastern Colorado
during the night. Presently, 20%-40% chances for thunderstorms
during the day, 30%-50% during the night. High temperatures cool a
bit into the upper 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1032 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
through the overnight hours. Confidence is low in directly
impacting either KGLD or KMCK and VFR is expected to prevail.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024