578
FXUS63 KGLD 021701
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1101 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Possible significant severe weather in the area this afternoon
  and evening. Very large hail, very strong wind gusts, and a
  couple of tornadoes are the main threats. There is a chance
  that severe weather will not form in the area or be very
  limited depending on how much dry air moves into the area.
  Best chance is along and north of Highway 36.

- A less active weather pattern develops Monday through Friday
  with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Today is forecast to be fairly warm and active. Current satellite
observations show a trough positioned near Southern California and
Southern Nevada. This trough is forecast to move further north and
east into the Four Corners region by the evening. As the upper
trough advances, the broad surface low over Eastern Colorado is
forecast to deepen and shift further east into the area.

For the daytime hours, the shifting of the low and forecasted south
to southwesterly flow will allow some drier air to begin working
into the area. This will help keep skies sunny to partly cloudy
through the mid-afternoon hours and help allow temperatures to warm
into the low to mid 90`s (with 850mb temps forecast to be around
30C). This would allow for critical fire weather conditions in parts
of Eastern Colorado as surface dewpoints are forecast to drop into
the 30`s or less, but overall fire weather concerns remain low with
the recent rainfall.

For the mid-afternoon and evening hours, there is the possibility of
significant severe weather for the area. The threat for today though
will hinge on how far the low center and drier air nudges into the
area. For locales that are behind the dryline, instability is
forecast to be relatively low (<2000 J/KG) and the flow nearly
unidirectional with similar speeds which would keep shear
generally below 30 kts. In short, storm development in this
region would be unlikely with short lived storms if they did
form. Still could see a severe wind gust though with the dry air
through much of the column. There`s also the possibility that
as the trough moves closer later, a cluster of storms could form
and move through much of the drier area.

For areas ahead of the dryline, it will get a bit more interesting
with all the moisture present near the surface. Loaded gun soundings
are being forecast, especially near the dryline with soundings
suggesting anywhere from 4000-6000 J/KG of MUCAPE present in the
region of higher surface moisture. With the presence of a cap, will
need either temperatures to warm generally towards the mid 90`s to
reach convective temperature, or have storms form along the surface
convergence from the low and dryline. If storms can initiate, the
environment will then be supportive of all hazards with significant
hail (effective shear near 40 kts) and wind gusts (DCAPE above 1500
J/KG & 60+kts flow in cloud layer) possible. Max hazards for the
event based on analogs and guidance are suggested to be 3.5 inches
for hail and 85 mph wind gusts. A couple of tornadoes would also be
possible with LCL`s forecast to lower to within a few thousand feet
while low level shear exceeds 10kts and SRH exceeds 100-200 m2/s2.
The overall flooding threat looks to be low with storm motions
generally forecast in the 30 to 40 kt range and limited chances for
training.

In short, today boils down to how far east the dryline and surface
low move. The further into our area these features move by this
afternoon, the lesser the severe threat. Any area that does have
storms develop with dewpoints generally above 55F, the severe threat
will be great with significant hazards possible. The favored area
will be along and north of Highway 36 where surface convergence is
forecast to occur along the low and where moisture would wrap
around. The entire area is at risk as temperatures may be able to
reach convective temperature and overcome any capping.

Tonight, skies will slowly clear as storms exit to the east. Winds
are also forecast to lower generally back below 15 mph as the
pressure gradient weakens and the surface low moves overhead. Lows
are forecast to drop into the 50`s and 60`s.

Tomorrow, the area is forecast to remain under mostly zonal flow
aloft while the broad surface low redevelops along the Front Range.
Temperatures are forecast to be a tad cooler then today, but with no
real air mass change, highs should still warm to near 90. Sunny to
partly cloudy skies are forecast to be over the area again with some
drier air in place. However, near surface moisture is forecast to
remain generally along and east of Highway 25. Storms might be able
to fire up if it get warm enough as the lack of synoptic forcing
will otherwise keep storms from firing up.

Tomorrow night, could see some storms move near the Tri-State border
if a cluster forms near the Front Range and can hold together.
Otherwise, cloud cover is forecast to increase from storms to the
west. Lows are forecast to hold in the upper 50`s and 60`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Upper-level northwesterly flow will dominate majority of the long-
term period as a high pressure system will set up near the Great
Basin region and remain there through next weekend. This will have
temperatures warm into the mid 80s through mid 90s. It will also
allow mid-level shortwaves to give us chances at precipitation, but
PoPs are low (<20) due to a lack of moisture through Wednesday
night. There is about a 20% chance brief critical fire weather
conditions will be seen in the far western CWA Wednesday, but winds
are not supportive of it at this time.

Thursday, we could see the LLJ moving some moisture back into the
CWA which would increase PoPs and cloud cover. Diurnal PoPs look to
increase to about 20-30 Thursday and onward and high temperatures
may cool a bit, remaining in the 80s. Low temperatures will cool
into the mid 50s to low 60s. Each day of the long-term looks very
similar the other under this persistent pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1057 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Watching an outflow boundary move west from earlier morning
convection; have included a tempo group for GLD for a possible
wind shift associated with this. The main focus for this TAF
period will be thunderstorms late this afternoon and through
this evening. Isolated cells look to develop near KGLD around
21Z before growing upscale into a cluster or two which does look
to impact KMCK. For KMCK will need to watch for severe
potential and possible sub VFR conditions. In the wake of the
storms winds will become more variable but lighter through 18Z
Monday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg