Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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523 FXUS63 KGLD 020752 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 152 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern continues through the weekend as weather systems moves through during the late afternoon through overnight hours from west to east. All modes of severe weather are possible over the weekend. - A less active weather pattern develops Monday through Friday with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 158 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 As of 1 PM MDT, we are beginning to see storms develop off the Front Range and Palmer Divide near the dryline, moving east. We are also starting to see some cumulus clouds develop on satellite across portions of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. The cumulus over the eastern half of the area we are watching for additional storm development out ahead of our main dryline storms. Instability is expected to continue to increase over the next few hours due to heating. Storms today are expected to be discrete supercells to clusters with strong westerly to northwesterly shear of 35-40 kts over the area through the evening. Large hail of 2+ inches is the primary concern with these storms along with damaging thunderstorm wind gusts given the DCAPE around 1100-1300 J/kg. A tornado can`t be ruled out, given the adequate shear to maintain rotating updrafts; however, confidence is low to medium. Heavy rain could lead to some flooding concerns as well with PWs of 0.7-1.2" over the area, especially once storms grow upscale into clusters, follow the slow right mover motion out of the northwest, or begin to train over the same areas. Storms are expected to exit the area between 2-6 AM MDT. Once the storms clear out, the area will likely be clear of any hazardous weather as any fog potential will be limited with the southerly winds. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s. Another active day is in store for tomorrow as a stronger shortwave swings across the High Plains during the late afternoon/evening hours. High temperatures in the low 90s across the area will lead to even better destabilization than today with up to ~4000 J/kg of MLCAPE and less than 100 J/kg of CIN. Storms are expected to begin firing up along the dryline over Eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon hours. As storms move east into the area, storms north of I-70 are expected to merge with others in Western Nebraska to form a line. While all modes of severe weather will once again be possible, damaging straight line winds are a much bigger threat for our northeast counties which have been placed into an enhanced risk for tomorrow by SPC. Storms should exit the area a few hours after midnight. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 151 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Upper-level northwesterly flow will dominate majority of the long- term period as a high pressure system will set up near the Great Basin region and remain there through next weekend. This will have temperatures warm into the mid 80s through mid 90s. It will also allow mid-level shortwaves to give us chances at precipitation, but PoPs are low (<20) due to a lack of moisture through Wednesday night. There is about a 20% chance brief critical fire weather conditions will be seen in the far western CWA Wednesday, but winds are not supportive of it at this time. Thursday, we could see the LLJ moving some moisture back into the CWA which would increase PoPs and cloud cover. Diurnal PoPs look to increase to about 20-30 Thursday and onward and high temperatures may cool a bit, remaining in the 80s. Low temperatures will cool into the mid 50s to low 60s. Each day of the long-term looks very similar the other under this persistent pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1139 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period, though am watching for fog in the first 6 hours (15% chance). LLWS is also forecast for about the first 6 hours of the period with the strengthening low level jet. By mid morning, skies should be clear and LLWS should have ended. Will then have to keep an eye on the late afternoon and evening hours as a boundary moves through, shifting winds to out of the north for a few hours and potentially sparking thunderstorms. KMCK has the higher chance, but both have at least a 20% chance starting at 22Z. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Flooding concerns linger into the weekend. However, chances have lowered a tad compared to previous days as yesterday`s storms generally produced around an inch or less of rain. Soil moisture is now forecast to generally be 50% or less across the area. For today`s storms, they could produce heavy rain or a small hail and rain mix, but they should be moving quick enough to limit additional rainfall to 1.5 inches or less. The exception will be if a supercell develops and persists as the forecast speed of supercells later is very slow at 10 mph or less. This could lead to heavy rainfall in a concentrated area. For tomorrow`s storms, the overall chance is low unless storms cluster. Otherwise, fairly fast storm movement and the addition of some dry air will limit flooding potential. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KMK LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...KAK HYDROLOGY...KAK