263
FXUS62 KGSP 020508
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
108 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure moves off the Carolina coast on Sunday with
warming temperatures and increasing moisture. A typical summer
pattern will develop during the first half of the week with daily
afternoon thunderstorm chances. Showers and thunderstorms will
likely increase in coverage for Wednesday and Thursday as a cold
front approaches our area, with drier weather expected to return by
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM Update...High based clouds producing periodic light rain,
sprinkles, and virga continue across the FA this morning. More
moderate showers are running up the NC/SC spine yet producing very
little rainfall over any given locale. Expect an uptick in overall
shower coverage arnd 09z-10z as a weak sfc bndry currently located
over ern AL pushes in from the southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 pm Saturday: The upper air pattern will become
increasingly anticyclonic across our region early in the short term,
as a weak ridge builds from the Deep South through the Great Lakes.
As a result, a deep moisture plume will gradually shunt east of the
forecast area early in the period. In the interim, scattered
coverage of showers along with a few storms will continue into
Sunday evening before steadily tapering off. Decreasing deep layer
moisture will yield less in the way of cloud cover, but also
improved potential for destabilization Monday afternoon. Diurnal
convection is forecast to initiate...esp across the high terrain.
While coverage is expected to be more limited than on Monday, sbCAPE
of around 1500 J/kg should allow for a few stronger storms, with
perhaps a stray pulse severe storm not completely out of the
question. With little change in the pattern and thermodynamic
profiles expected, Tuesday should be very similar to Monday, with
scattered diurnal convection expected, and perhaps a slight uptick
in the threat for a pulse severe storm with hotter conditions
expected. The first half of the period is expected to see temps
average around...or slightly above normal...while the short term is
expected to end around 5 degrees above climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 pm Saturday: An expansive/deep upper low will wobble from
the Canadian Prairie at the start of the period to the Great Lakes
by Thursday evening. Height falls associated with a vorticity lobe
lifting ahead of the low is expected to send a frontal boundary
into the region by late Wed, enhancing convective chances across the
southern Appalachians and vicinity Wed into Wed night. Indications
in global model guidance are that the afternoon will see at least
moderate instability, albeit in a modestly sheared environment. A
few strong-to-severe pulse storms and/or multicell clusters will be
possible.  An additional round of storms is possible Thursday,
although this is a bit more uncertain, as some global model guidance
suggests drier air will be filtering into the area in the wake of
the frontal boundary Thu afternoon. PoPs are generally advertised in
the solid chance range during that time. The latter half of the
period should become more inactive as lower theta-E air advects into
the region. PoPs for Fri/Sat are limited to token slight chances,
mainly over the mtns. Temperatures are forecast at around 2-4
degrees above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The weather becomes more active today as a
weak, yet moist, sfc bndry pushes in from the west. Have all
terminals seeing increasing chance of vicinity showers before
daybreak and PROB30 thunder chances during the afternoon, generally
beg 17z west and 18z east. Restrictions will be limited to lowering
CIGs to MVFR after the tstms weaken and push east during the latter
period. Could see IFR or lower VSBY near daybreak Mon across the TAF
sites and this potential will be addressed with the 12z TAF set.
Winds remain rather low-end and generally s/ly to sw/ly as broad sfc
ridging persists associated with a sfc high stationed off the Atl
coast.

Outlook: Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances with associated
restrictions will linger through the middle of next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK