361
FXPQ50 PGUM 310745
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
545 PM ChST Fri May 31 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies with some additional high clouds will be moving
through the Marianas tonight. Few, if any, showers tonight could
increase slightly for the weekend. Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet are
composed mainly of an east trade-wind swell plus some wind waves.

&&

.Discussion...
The Marianas are currently still within a dry season trade-wind
regime. Often, as that begins to change, upper-level lows which are
part of the TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) will swing by,
creating increased showers and a chance of lighting. It looks like
that could happen around Tuesday. True wet season is still a little
ways off, but the harbinger is appearing now. Perhaps in about a
month we will be getting ready to enter wet season.

&&

.Marine...
Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet could diminish around Sunday to between
2 and 4 feet. Winds will be light to gentle through the middle of
next week, so benign marine conditions are on tap.

&&

.Fire weather...
The fire danger will likely become high again Saturday. Thankfully,
winds will remain below red flag criteria through next week. Also,
showers could increase around the middle of next week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
An active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) stretches east-
northeastward from west-southwest of Chuuk, across Weno, Pohnpei to
end northwest of Kwajalein. A robust trade-wind trough is also
evident from south-southwest of Chuuk to north of Kwajalein.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
from south of Weno to just west of Kwajalein. The majority of the
convection remains north of Kosrae. An overall unsettled pattern
looks to continue for Chuuk and Pohnpei for the next several days as
the ITCZ remains active and the trough transits through the region. A
drier pattern is then expected for Pohnpei and Chuuk by the end of
next week as the ITCZ moves out and weakens. For Majuro, a series of
trade-wind troughs are expected to transit the region, maintaining
POPs (Probability of Precipitation) in the 30 to 40 percent range
through the middle of next week. The first of these troughs will
reach Kosrae Saturday evening, bringing the wetter weather to the
island, continuing through the end of next week.

Marine conditions look to remain fairly benign over the next several
days with mainly light to gentle winds at Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae.
Winds look to become occasionally moderate at Chuuk and Pohnpei
near the middle of next week. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds
are expected into the middle of next week at Majuro. Combined seas of
3 to 5 feet are expected to continue at Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae
through the weekend, with 4 to 6 foot seas at Majuro. Seas will then
increase around 1 foot at Pohnpei and Majuro near the middle of next
week.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Palau and Yap...
Dry conditions prevailed across Palau and Yap today. This pattern
looks to continue through Saturday night. Overall, fairly stable
conditions look to prevail across the region. However, due to winds
becoming light and variable combined with a weak trough moving
through late in the weekend, scattered showers are possible Sunday
due to a combination of the island effect and weak lifting from the
trough. By early next week, the drier pattern returns, though winds
look to remain fairly light through midweek. This could result in
island convection continuing over both Yap and Palau for the next few
days. Around the middle of next week, another weak trough moving
through could increase POPs to around 30 percent for both Yap and
Palau.

Light winds and combined seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail across the
region through the middle of next week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Stanko
Micronesia: Kleeschulte