Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
945 FXPQ50 PGUM 030813 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 613 PM ChST Mon Jun 3 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Fair weather is seen across the Marianas. Remnants of island effect showers are seen over the islands, especially Guam. && .Discussion... No changes made to the forecast, kept thunderstorms out of Tuesday`s forecast as we`re expecting similar conditions, with winds slightly stronger. Did see a good amount of showers, 1.40 inches for Fena Reservoir around noon time with some towering cumulus of the southern mountains. A weak surface circulation is seen southeast of Guam, models show this feature traveling west as a weak trough and flattening out as it reaches the Marianas, which may provide a small uptick in showers, but still expecting isolated showers. Models maintain weak surface divergence for another day over the Marianas due to a high pressure ridge. By Wednesday, the weakening ridge will result in increasing moisture from the southeast, bringing in scattered showers. && .Marine... Combined seas of 3 to 4 feet are expected to increase up to 2 feet, starting mid week and peak around late week or around the weekend. This is due to increasing wind waves and trade swell. Current rip current risk is low and is expected to become moderate from Wednesday on. && .Eastern Micronesia... Satellite analysis this afternoon shows extensive pockets of deep convection along and north of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone that starts at the International Date Line and extends south of Majuro and Kosrae before ending south of Pohnpei. Latest model analysis shows the ITCZ becomes fragmented sometime Tuesday into Wednesday before establishing during the latter part of the week into the weekend. Gentle to moderate trades and benign seas are expected to persist through the early part of the weekend. Altimetry this afternoon showed combined seas between 4 and 5 feet. && .Western Micronesia... Little has changed in the forecast. Latest model analysis shows a westward extension of the ITCZ into the region over the next few days, before the ITCZ fragments and transitions into a trade-wind pattern during the latter part of the week. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through the middle of the week before shower and thunderstorm activity trend downward around this weekend. Light and gentle winds and benign seas are expected through the early part of the weekend at Yap and Palau. For Chuuk, gentle to moderate trades will persist through at least Wednesday night, then weaken to light to gentle trades with benign seas through early this weekend. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Hong Micronesia: Kelly