Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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219 FXUS61 KGYX 010959 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 559 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Great Lakes will settle off the east coast bringing and extended stretch of dry weather to the region with temperatures gradually warming through the weekend. Cooling seabreezes will form on the coast today through at least Monday. The first half of next week is expected to continue the dry and mild stretch with unsettled weather possibly to return late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 6 AM Update...No changes to the going forecast. We are on track for a beautiful morning weatherwise. Previously... High pressure gradually builds overhead this weekend while weak low pressure continues to spin over the Maritimes. This will continue to the northerly or northwesterly flow regime with warm temperatures with wind gusts 15 to 20 MPH. A late day seabreeze is expected on the coast which will make it feel quite chilly/cold there by 00z this evening. Otherwise, dry weather is expected under mostly sunny skies. Beach hazard statement continues for sunny/mild/breezy conditions with ocean temperatures still in the 50s. Fully expect these headlines will be necessary through the weekend given continued dry and mild conditions. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... No changes with the forecast for tonight. Mostly clear skies expected with deep layer ridging moving overhead. Went with a blend of MOS products for lows tonight as radiational cooling will likely be quite good, especially across northern NH. However, the air mass has modified enough that frost development should not occur. Another fair and warm day expected on Sunday with highs around 80 except on the immediate coast where a seabreeze will likely form and make it chilly by late in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A rather quiet weather pattern continues in the long term. An upper level ridge will shield the area from any significant precipitation through most of next week. In the dailies: An area of mid and upper level clouds may cross the area Monday with spot showers possible in the north. Behind this the east coast ridge builds back north and should dominate the weather through midweek. Can`t rule out some scattered diurnal shower activity mainly over the mountains and foothills but most of the time conditions should remain dry. A cutoff low over southern Canada just north of the Great Lakes will have a hard time making eastward progress. A cold front pivoting around this system will approach Thursday and Friday increasing the chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. The GFS is more aggressive than the ECMWF with this frontal feature. Given that we are in a rather blocky pattern, would favor a littler slower progression with this system so will go under GFS POPS and trend a little closer the the ECMWF. Have added patchy marine fog each night Monday Night through Wednesday Night. Temperatures will be on the warm side reaching somewhat above normal values ranging from the upper 70`s to mid 80`s Monday and mid 70`s to low 80`s Tuesday through Friday. Expect afternoon seabreezes to cool the immediate coastal areas and islands. Low temperatures will generally be in 50`s. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions expected today. Northwest to north winds will again build to 10g20kts by late morning and through the afternoon before going calm/light- variable tonight. A seabreeze is expected at coastal terminals by late afternoon today and again on Sunday. Long Term... Generally Expect VFR to MVFR throughout the Monday-Wed period. && .MARINE... Short Term...With high pressure west of the region northwesterly winds of 10-15kts are expected to continue through the period with nearshore gusts 20kts at times. Winds will go onshore this afternoon and Sunday afternoon as a seabreeze develops each day. Long Term...Wind and waves to remain below SCA conditions through the extended forecast period. Patchy fog mainly at night starting Monday Night. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ023>028. NH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NHZ014. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Ekster LONG TERM...Ekster/Lulofs