Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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148 FXUS64 KHGX 282328 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 628 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 426 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Well...that was interesting. That line of thunderstorms started out around the Dallas/Fort Worth area earlier this morning and became stronger as it entered the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. These storms were severe throughout Southeast Texas as they pushed through with winds of 70+ mph at times and quarter to golf ball sized hail. Those strong winds led to 300,000+ of you to lose power along with plenty of downed trees. Rainfall rates within the strongest of those storms were 2-3" per hour, which led to street flooding especially along feeder roads and underpasses. This water may take a bit to drain, so please do NOT drive through any flooded roadways and do NOT drive around any barricades. These storms are now offshore and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was in effect has been cancelled earlier than expected. Another interesting tidbit is that the low temperature for today occurred during the afternoon hours for most of us as these storms pushed through. We saw plenty of obs drop into the upper 60s to low 70s earlier today! Now that all of that is out of the way, let`s talk about the next round of rainfall that moves in overnight. The 12Z CAMs weren`t all that great with depicting today`s convection, so take this with a grain of salt, but there is general consensus on tonight`s round of rainfall being way less robust than what occurred earlier today. Most of them depict a decaying line of showers and storms moving in from the Hill Country along another shortwave. Some isolated stronger storms can`t be ruled out of course, but the environment around here has been pretty well worked over from today`s round of storms. Temperatures overnight will be "cooler" than they have been recently thanks to the rain-cooled air, expect lows to range from the upper 60s to the low 70s. 850mb temperatures will be a bit cooler on Wednesday, so only expecting high temperatures to top out in the upper 80s to around 90F. On Wednesday afternoon, high-res model guidance depicts another round of showers/storms along the sea breeze. So, rain chances will generally be higher along and south of I-10 towards the afternoon. Rain chances persist into late Wednesday night with some model guidance hinting at another MCS potentially moving through the area, but the timing and placement is off between members so it`d be difficult to list specifics at the moment. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will range from the low to upper 70s. Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 426 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Persistent onshore flow will bring increasing temperatures & heat indices from Thursday into next week. Abundant moisture and impulses aloft will bring daily chances of showers/storms. A few stronger storms could produce locally heavy rainfall through the early weekend, mainly in areas north of I-10. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR this evening, and still thinking that MVFR ceilings will return to the area overnight. Weakening SHRA/TSRA could be moving eastward into the area overnight, so will continue to mention VCSH for now and see how things unfold/evolve out west. Any MVFR ceilings that do develop overnight will lift around 14-17Z, and then we expect another shot of scattered SHRA/TSRA in the late afternoon through early evening hours (have VCTS for that). Any storms that do develop should weaken and dissipate in the evening. Looking at another night of possible MVFR ceilings heading into tomorrow night. More storms are possible on Thursday. 42 && .MARINE... Issued at 426 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist into next week with seas around 3 to 5ft. Small craft will need to exercise caution at times, especially during the overnight hours as wind gusts to near 20kt. The chances for showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday and persist through the weekend, but highest coverage of the storms will be inland. The persistent onshore flow will also lead to a high risk of strong rip currents through the weekend. Fowler/03 && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 426 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 There are currently three River Flood Warnings in effect: two along the Trinity River and one on the Navasota River. The Trinity River at Liberty is currently in moderate flood stage through Tuesday night, then drops out of minor flood stage later this week. The Trinity River at Moss Bluff will remain in minor flood stage until further notice. The Navasota River at Normangee has reached its crest in minor flood stage and is forecast to drop below flood stage later this week. In addition to this, heavy rainfall today has led to street flooding across Southeast TX especially along feeder roads and underpasses. There will be a lull in rainfall at least through early Wednesday morning, so the water will have some time to drain. Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat persists. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 87 73 87 / 30 60 30 50 Houston (IAH) 72 88 75 87 / 30 60 30 60 Galveston (GLS) 77 86 79 85 / 30 60 30 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 5 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$