557
FXUS64 KHGX 071727
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1227 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The short term forecast will continue to be a dry quiet one with
high pressure as the main weather feature. Ridging aloft will be
shifting east (from far W TX) across SE TX and then the northern
Gulf coast these next couple of days. At the surface, high pres-
sure lingering over the region will help to keep winds generally
light and variable. Overall, this should translate to a continu-
ation of the warm no-rain weather that has been in place over SE
TX as we end the week and head into the weekend. Highs are going
to be in the lower to mid 90s each day with lows in the lower to
mid 70s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A breakdown of the prevailing synoptic regime is expected by
Sunday as surface high pressure drifts towards the Eastern Gulf.
Meanwhile, 500mb flow transitions to a more zonal pattern,
allowing a series of weak shortwaves to move through the area over
the following several days. This pattern shift will bring us our
next chance of widespread rainfall as we head into next week, with
rainfall chances remaining in the forecast through at least mid-
week.

By Monday, a cold front extending from a surface low over the
Northeastern CONUS will push through the Southern Plains and
arrive in SE TX during the evening hours. With widespread deep
moisture availability (total PWs of approximately 1.75 to 2.0
in), the approaching boundary should bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the area in the afternoon and evening hours. The
potential for severe weather will be limited by bulk wind shear
values (~25 kt) and relatively marginal SBCAPE values for most
locations (~800-1200 J/kg). Recent GFS run does take the boundary
all the way to the coast, a departure from yesterday`s solution.
The EC, on the other hand, continues to stall the boundary across
portions of the northern zones. Rainfall chances on Tuesday and
Wednesday will ultimately be tied to the position of the
boundary, with a stalled boundary over land favoring more
widespread precipitation as a series of shortwaves traverse the
area just to our north. For the time being, the severe weather
risk associated with this pattern remains low.

Look for highs to continue to remain mostly in the lower 90s
throughout the duration of next week, with overnight lows sitting
mainly in the lower to mid 70s. With dew point values continuing
to sit in the upper 60s/low 70s, we`ll likely be just under Heat
Advisory thresholds as things currently stand. That being said,
continued hot and humid weather next week will still require some
safety actions like remaining hydrated and applying sunscreen.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Expect some relatively calm wind speeds ranging from 0-10kts and
a direction that varies throughout the period. Mostly clear skies
with only a few high clouds possible. There will be some light
misting occuring around 10z, however this should not have a strong
impact on visibility.

Thompson/Adams

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Light winds and lower seas continue into the weekend, with
rainfall chances remaining fairly limited through Sunday. On
Monday, a surface cold front will approach the coast, bringing
with it the potential for more widespread showers and storms that
will remain in the forecast for the proceeding several days. Light
to occasionally moderate onshore winds will generally prevail,
aside from a brief shift to northerly winds as the boundary moves
into the area on Monday.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  72  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  96  75  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  80  86  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Cady