751
FXUS66 KHNX 232018
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
118 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above average
again on Monday with widespread triple digit highs across the
lower elevations. A Heat Advisory is in effect through Tuesday
morning.

2. There is a 50 to 80 percent probability of high temperatures
of at least 105 degrees or above across most of the San Joaquin
valley on Monday afternoon.

3. Above average heat will continue this week, with 100 degree
heat persisting for many locations through Wednesday.

4. There is a 10 to 20 percent probability for thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon along the Sierra Nevada crest from Yosemite
National Park to Kings Canyon and Sequoia National Park.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper ridge centered over AZ continues to be the
dominant weather feature for central CA at this time and is
providing the San Joaquin Valley, West Side Hills, lower Sierra
Foothills and the Kern River Canyon with a high heat risk with
temperatures generally running 2 to 4 DEG F above yday at this
time. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for these areas through
Tuesday morning as temperatures are not expected cool more than
1 to 3 DEG F on Monday.

For Monday, the PoE of 103 DEG F or higher from the NBM for
selected cities in the San Joaquin Valley are as follows.

Merced 36%
Madera 36%
Fresno 71%
Reedley 36%
Lemoore 51%
Hanford 51%
Visalia 56%
Porterville 71%
Delano 71%
Bakersfield 71%

Satellite imagery is showing some cumulus buildups as far north
as southern Kern County as some moisture from the remains of
former Tropical Storm Alberto has finally made it`s way into
Socal. Deeper moisture and a few thunderstorms have been
observed over northern Baja today. The NBM continues to show
some of this moisture might provide for a minimal chance of
showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon in the Sierra Nevada
on Monday afternoon and a slight chance over the higher
elevations of the Sierra Nevada on Tuesday afternoon.

The increased mid/high level moisture presence and the
weakening of the upper ridge will allow for a cooling trend to
take place on Tuesday although the PoE for 100 DEG F across the
San Joaquin Valley is mainly between 50 and 80 percent.

Ensemble means are showing a fairly significant upper trough
pushing across the PAC NW on Wednesday night and Thursday which
will break down the southwestern CONUS ridge and allow for a
more pronounced onshore flow over central CA resulting in a
cooling trend across the are later this week. By Thursday the
PoE of 100 DEG F in the San Joaquin Valley is generally 30
percent or less although temperatures will remain above daily
climatological normals.

Ensemble means are now showing another upper trough pushing
through the PAC NW next weekend which will likely inhibit the
return of dangerous heat across our area although temps will
remain above normal for late June.

The trough passages have the potential to produce periods of
increased winds over the normally wind prone areas such as the
West Side Hills and Mojave Desert Slopes. However, at this
time, the PoE for winds exceeding 45 mph along the Mojave Desert
Slopes on Thursday afternoon and evening and again next weekend
is less than 40 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA
interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ300>317-319-321-
332.
&&

$$

public/aviation/fire wx...DAS
idss...SM

weather.gov/hanford