Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
518 FXUS66 KHNX 240824 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 124 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warming trend will continue across the region with a moderate to high probability (30 to 75 percent) of temperatures reaching triple digits in the San Joaquin Valley today. 2. A cooling trend will take place on Wednesday and Thursday, but temperatures will remain above normal for the rest of the week and into the weekend. 3. A dry week for the region is expected for all of the interior of central California. Relative humidity values are expected to fall into the single digits during the afternoon hours for eastern Kern County. The rest of the area`s relative humidity values will fall into the low 20s. Overnight recoveries will be poor for the desert and higher elevations while moderate for the valley. && .DISCUSSION... An upper-level low remains off the coast of Southern California; high pressure otherwise remains in control for today. High temperatures have a moderate to high likelihood (30 to 75 percent chance) of reaching triple digits in the SJ Valley this afternoon. Yesterday`s highs were in the upper 90`s at many locations in this area, so it won`t be difficult to top 100 degrees given the pattern. Afternoon humidity will be quite low (single digits in the desert up to 20 percent in the Central Valley) in the hottest locations, as well as the higher elevations, and recoveries will be moderate at best during the overnight hours. On Wednesday, the upper-level low weakens and moves inland as a shortwave trough over Northern CA while southwest flow aloft prevails. A few degrees of cooling is not of the question for Wednesday, although highs will still be several degrees above seasonal averages. Some minor improvement in humidity will coincide with the lower temperatures, except for little change in the desert areas of eastern Kern County. Probabilistic data suggests highs of at least 95 degrees have about a 20 to 40 percent chance of occurrence into Wednesday, except for higher chances (40 to 75 percent) in the valley and desert portions of Kern County. Little change in temperatures occurs later this week, although highs are projected slightly lower on Thursday compared to Wednesday. On Friday into the weekend, the ridge of high pressure builds into the region from the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will nudge back up at least a few degrees on Friday and remain steady into Saturday. Afternoon humidity will once again lower along with with poor to moderate overnight recovery in the mountains and desert. Little change occurs Sunday into early next week, including until the 1st of October. Thus, dry weather and above average temperatures prevail for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ BSO/MM weather.gov/hanford