Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
776 FXUS66 KHNX 310800 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 100 AM PDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY POINTS... 1. A warming trend will continue today into Saturday which will result in afternoon highs of 7 to 10 degrees above normal. 2. Gusty west winds are possible Saturday night and Sunday morning for the Mojave Desert Slopes and Kern County Desert. 3. Following a cool down early next week, a more significant warming trend will take place next week with probabilities of exceeding 105 degrees at 45 to 65 percent for most of the San Joaquin Valley on Wednesday and Thursday. 4. The anticipated heat for later next week could lead to increased snowmelt from the Sierra Nevada with colder and higher flows along rivers and waterways. && .DISCUSSION... Today we are on track for a hotter day than yesterday, and highs have about up to a 20 percent chance of reaching the century mark in the San Joaquin Valley which will be the best chance for this year so far. As for Saturday, chances are a little lower for upper 90`s, but we won`t notice much change in areas south of Merced County. Winds will increase towards the passes and canyons along the Mojave Desert slopes in eastern Kern County and the coastal ranges by Saturday evening. Based on latest blended guidance, about a 25 to 40 percent chance of occurrence for gusts at least 45 mph is shown for late Saturday afternoon into the evening along the desert slopes. A brief cooldown occurs on Sunday and Monday, and then a warming trend begins by Tuesday. Temperatures will generally be near seasonal averages on Sunday and Monday before warming to slightly above normal on Tuesday. Confidence continues to increase rregardingmore widespread triple digit heat for next week, and ensemble and deterministic guidance are in good agreement. The strong ridge of high pressure builds by the middle of next week. Now we`re looking at least moderate probabilities (45 to 65 percent) for much of the SJ Valley to reach 105 degrees on both Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures in the Kern County desert have similar probabilities of reaching this threshold (or about 35 to 65 percent), so afternoon highs will be about the same. As for minimum temperatures, many locations in the Central Valley show anywhere from 20 percent chance to around 80 percent chance (mainly Bakersfield and Fresno, as well as near the lower Sierra Nevada foothills) of lows in the 70`s by Thursday morning and again next Friday morning. Little or no relief from the heat occurs next Friday, as highs remain in the triple digits. In addition, we will have to monitor for additional snowmelt from the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada running off into the rivers and waterways. As it gets hotter, local waterways and lakes will be even more inviting. However, cold and fast moving water is dangerous! && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...BSO aviation....Proton weather.gov/hanford