Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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029 FXUS64 KHUN 141926 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 226 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 For the rest of this afternoon and tonight, the area will fall under the increasing influence of a ridge building to our west. Cumulus that have managed to develop mainly along the higher terrain will tend to dissipate later today, leaving mostly clear sky conditions overnight. Light winds and a mostly clear sky will help temperatures fall from highs in the upr 80s to mid 90s down into the upr 60s and lower 70s by daybreak Saturday. Patchy fog could form tonight mainly in lower terrain in eastern portions of the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A partially closed low will phase with a broad but low-amplitude trough in the west today/tonight. This will lead to downstream ridge development in the OH/TN Valleys through the weekend. This will tend to halt the progression of a southward moving cold front in the OH Valley observed in model analyses and sfc observations. Most of the drier air and lower dew points poleward of the front will likely not tend to make it into our area, except perhaps for far NE portions of the area later Saturday. The upr ridge and developing sfc high will continue to translate eastward to the eastern side of the Appalachians on Sunday. Flow around the sfc high will bring SSE winds and a slight increase in low-lvl moisture into the area on Sunday. This increase may be sufficient, when combined with heating of elevated terrain and along differential heating boundaries, to ignite some isolated showers/thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon. Sounding thermal/moisture profiles suggest some strong wind potential with high moisture loading (PWs ~1.7 to 1.9 in) and inverted-V low-lvl profiles. Mid-lvl dry could aid local wind development potential, but also serve to inhibit stronger cell growth. So, the threat looks rather minimal at this time, nevertheless worth mentioning here. Otherwise, the main story for the weekend will be the increasingly hot conditions underneath the building upr ridge. Temperature conditions per heat indices and wet-bulb globe temps may be close to heat advisory criteria, especially in/around the HSV and Quad- cities areas on Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Muggy conditions will continue Sunday night with lows only in the low/mid 70s. A deep southerly flow will help return more moisture to the area, with area dewpoints on Monday rising to around 70. This moisture will also result in an increase in cloud cover, which should put a slight damper on very warm to hot conditions that have likely occurred over the weekend. Highs to start the new work week should rise into the lower 90s, with heat index values in the mid/upper 90s. Daytime heating and resultant instability from higher moisture values, will bring lower end (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms to the valley Mon afternoon. Strong upper level high pressure over the region will help warm the mid troposphere, which should help reduce rain chances Mon evening. This strong and warm upper ridging is forecast to amplify over the states north and east of here (Mid Atlantic to New England) in the course of the new week. The 500mb reflection of the upper high has maximum height values near the 600 decameter range Wed/Thu from Pennsylvania to New Hampshire. With lower heights more to the south and west, our daily high temperatures for Tue/Wed/Thu should range mainly in the lower 90s, and lows in the lower 70s. Somewhat lower levels of moisture should result in dry conditions for this timeframe. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions are forecast at HSV and MSL through the TAF period. Winds should remain light from the NW around 5-7 kts through Friday afternoon, until becoming light and variable to calm by 00Z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KDW SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...Serre