869
FXUS64 KHUN 181115
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
615 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Current satellite shows dry air over much of northwest AL, with
evidence of a moisture gradient as you head east of I-65. This is
also evident by dense stratus over northern GA and eastern TN. The
main concern for the remainder of the morning hours will be fog
development, and confidence in dense fog is higher along and west
of I-65 due to the drier air. For now, current obs do not show any
visibility reductions but will continue to monitor through the
morning hours in case a short-fused Advisory is needed.

High pressure will continue to be the dominating factor locally as
an upper low across the Carolinas slowly pushes east. Will see
moisture wrap around the western side of this low, and that will
result in an increase in cloud cover this afternoon, especially
across NE AL and southern middle TN. Afternoon highs will range
from the low to mid 80s, but may need to be bumped up a few
degrees if subsidence wins out and cloud cover is overdone.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The main forecast concern will continue to be fog each night with
the combination of clear and calm conditions each night and recent
rainfall. Will see little change in the overall synoptic pattern
as the aforementioned upper low weekend and tracks northeast up
the Atlantic coast and upper ridging slowly shifts east. This will
result in warming temperatures into the weekend, with highs in
the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Upper ridging will center over the Southeast toward the later half
of the weekend, and the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain
after that. The GFS has trended toward a tropical system
developing in the Gulf that could result in more humid conditions
along the coastal regions. How far inland that tropical air makes
it, if at all, remains in question and have stuck with blended
guidance for temps and rain chances at this range. Highs will
largely remain in the mid 80s to lower 90s each day through
Tuesday, with a low chance (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be on the warm side,
largely in the upper 60s which is also a good indicator that we
will see increasing moisture into the long term period. Something
to watch for in future updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Early morning fog has been kept at bay so far this morning, and
has been left out of the TAFs due to a narrow window for
development and low confidence. However, watching vsbys drop over
NE MS, so amendments may be needed if fog begins to form near the
KMSL terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the
TAF period with the exception of potential fog tonight. Will
monitor forecast trends but leave out of the TAFs for this
issuance.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25