915
FXUS64 KHUN 181503
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1003 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1003 CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The forecast for the Tennessee Valley for the most part is on
track with dry weather continuing, and high temperatures rising
into the mid 80s. An area of moisture associated with a weak area
of low pressure which was heading eastbound across the Carolinas,
was bringing stratus over KY/TN and southward. These Marginal
Visual Flight Rules clouds, with cloud bases of 2000-3000 ft AGL
have moved across parts of far northern Alabama, with reduced
ceilings noted over Fayetteville and Winchester, and Scottsboro.
If the progress of these clouds continue, MVFR ceilings are
possible around the Huntsville and Quad Cities area in the late
morning. A presence of these clouds will keep temperatures on a
slightly cooler trend. Should they dissipate quicker than is
currently anticipated, we may need to boost them a little.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The main forecast concern will continue to be fog each night with
the combination of clear and calm conditions each night and recent
rainfall. Will see little change in the overall synoptic pattern
as the aforementioned upper low weekend and tracks northeast up
the Atlantic coast and upper ridging slowly shifts east. This will
result in warming temperatures into the weekend, with highs in
the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Upper ridging will center over the Southeast toward the later half
of the weekend, and the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain
after that. The GFS has trended toward a tropical system
developing in the Gulf that could result in more humid conditions
along the coastal regions. How far inland that tropical air makes
it, if at all, remains in question and have stuck with blended
guidance for temps and rain chances at this range. Highs will
largely remain in the mid 80s to lower 90s each day through
Tuesday, with a low chance (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be on the warm side,
largely in the upper 60s which is also a good indicator that we
will see increasing moisture into the long term period. Something
to watch for in future updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Early morning fog has been kept at bay so far this morning, and
has been left out of the TAFs due to a narrow window for
development and low confidence. However, watching vsbys drop over
NE MS, so amendments may be needed if fog begins to form near the
KMSL terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the
TAF period with the exception of potential fog tonight. Will
monitor forecast trends but leave out of the TAFs for this
issuance.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25