875
FXUS64 KHUN 180739
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Current satellite shows dry air over much of northwest AL, with
evidence of a moisture gradient as you head east of I-65. This is
also evident by dense stratus over northern GA and eastern TN. The
main concern for the remainder of the morning hours will be fog
development, and confidence in dense fog is higher along and west
of I-65 due to the drier air. For now, current obs do not show any
visibility reductions but will continue to monitor through the
morning hours in case a short-fused Advisory is needed.

High pressure will continue to be the dominating factor locally as
an upper low across the Carolinas slowly pushes east. Will see
moisture wrap around the western side of this low, and that will
result in an increase in cloud cover this afternoon, especially
across NE AL and southern middle TN. Afternoon highs will range
from the low to mid 80s, but may need to be bumped up a few
degrees if subsidence wins out and cloud cover is overdone.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The main forecast concern will continue to be fog each night with
the combination of clear and calm conditions each night and recent
rainfall. Will see little change in the overall synoptic pattern
as the aforementioned upper low weekend and tracks northeast up
the Atlantic coast and upper ridging slowly shifts east. This will
result in warming temperatures into the weekend, with highs in
the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Upper ridging will center over the Southeast toward the later half
of the weekend, and the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain
after that. The GFS has trended toward a tropical system
developing in the Gulf that could result in more humid conditions
along the coastal regions. How far inland that tropical air makes
it, if at all, remains in question and have stuck with blended
guidance for temps and rain chances at this range. Highs will
largely remain in the mid 80s to lower 90s each day through
Tuesday, with a low chance (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be on the warm side,
largely in the upper 60s which is also a good indicator that we
will see increasing moisture into the long term period. Something
to watch for in future updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Overall, there have been no changes to previous aviation forecast
reasoning, as the recent clearing trend continues to raise
confidence in the development of BR/FG during the early morning
hours. We have specifically included a TEMPO group btwn 9-13Z,
which is the timeframe when fog should be most widespread and
perhaps locally dense. Any fog will lift shortly after daybreak,
with NNW flow of 5-10 kts and a sct-bkn Cu field developing by
14Z, but dissipating by 22Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...70