955
FXUS64 KHUN 170248
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
948 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 948 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Light to calm winds and clear skies are much more prevalent across
northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee tonight than last
night. Many locations from Cullman county NW into NE Mississippi
given the good radiational cooling conditions experienced, already
have dewpoint depressions of 0 to 5 degrees in place. With very
saturated ground conditions in those areas, coverage of fog was
increased to a combination of patchy and areas of fog development
around midnight into the overnight hours. This may become dense,
but confidence is not high enough to put that in the forecast yet.
If dense fog forms, a Dense Fog Advisory for some areas west of
the I-65 corridor may be needed overnight into early Tuesday
morning.

Some models are also showing higher dewpoints remaining in place
in portions of NW Alabama. This should also aid fog development
west of the I-65 corridor. It should also keep low temperatures
from dropping as much (lower/mid 60s) compared to areas further
east (upper 50s), where dry air advection should limit fog
development more. More cloud cover east of the I-65 corridor
should help to limit fog development as well in those areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The Tennessee Valley will remain wedged between a building ridge
to the west that will attempt to push into the area by midweek and
the remnant potential tropical system meandering over the
Carolinas. The end result will be a continued dry forecast, with a
gradual warming trend taking shape by Wednesday/Thursday as highs
climb back into the mid to upper 80s. Continued clear/calm
conditions and saturated soils due to recent rainfall (especially
in northwest Alabama), patchy fog will likely remain in the
forecast each night during this timeframe.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The upper ridge will shift even farther east by Friday, and will
result in temps nearing 90 degrees as we head into the weekend.
At the sfc, high pressure will sink southeast through the Ohio
Valley and will further enforce a dry forecast through Sunday.
The next feature to watch will be an upper low that will shift
west into SC and GA by the end of the weekend, and could result
in an increase in clouds. Low level northeasterly flow will also
result in slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday, topping out in
the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid
60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Light and variable winds and clear skies at the terminals are
expected tonight. This will likely allow for VSBY restrictions due
to fog at both terminals. Drier air moving into the area may keep
it patchy and only MVFR. However, KMSL may see a bit thicker fog
if dewpoints stay higher there. A tempo group for MVFR VSBYS was
included from 08Z to 12Z at both terminals for now. Winds should
pick up to between 5 and 10 knots after 15Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...KTW