Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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830 FXUS64 KHUN 181827 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 127 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 High pressure continues to remain in control across the TN Valley this afternoon. Strong subsidence from this ridge will suppress rain chances overnight. Temperatures should drop into the mid-70s, with scattered to broken decks of mid/high clouds passing overhead. Winds become light and variable (less than 5 mph) across the entire area. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The upper-level ridge continues to build in through the end of the work week. Models show the ridge axis building in from the southwest. This, along with a weak low pressure system from the east coast, helps to promote convergence aloft and subsidence at the surface. CAPE values less than 1000 J/kg and a strong capping inversion will continue to suppress convection during the week. Rain chances remain very low through Friday as slightly drier air is advected in from the east. Highs gradually increase as the week progresses (into the mid to upper 90s). Lows at night drop into the low to the mid 70s at night. Winds become lighter through out the week with the building high. Excessive heat may begin to become an issue by Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A broad upper ridge axis is expected to be draped over the SE region into the southern Atlantic Basin going into the end of the work week. The subtropical high is also expected to be stretching westward into much of the region, essentially deflecting any convection to the north/south of the central TN Valley. This likewise should maintain dry conditions into the upcoming weekend period. The presence of the upper ridge pattern will also translate into seasonably hot temps for the latter half of the forecast period. Afternoon highs look to climb into the lower/mid 90s Fri, before temps rebound more into the mid to perhaps upper 90s Sat/Sun. Dew pts though look to be suppressed to the upper 60s/near 70F. This may at least keep max heat indices this weekend around 98-102F. Nevertheless, those with outdoor activities should exercise caution and stay hydrated. The upper ridge does look to eventually weaken near the end of the period, as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north. This looks to bring low-medium chances for showers/tstms (20-50%) back into the forecast late Sun into Mon. This may also result in afternoon highs Mon more in the lower/mid 90s. Overnight lows through early Mon look to fall mainly into the mid 70s/near 70F for most spots. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 11:55 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Gusty southeast winds will continue throughout the afternoon until weakening after sunset. A scattered cumulus cloud deck around 5000 feet is expected to form and dissipate after sunset, leaving clear skies and VFR conditions through the end of the period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Serre SHORT TERM....Serre LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...SPG