Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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864 FXUS63 KICT 281127 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 627 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic rain chances possible from this morning through the beginning of next week. Strong storms are possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected - Near to slightly below average temperatures through the rest of the week, then a gradual warming trend starts this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 This morning... Subtle WAA at 700 mb is helping to trigger some elevated showers within an area of meager instability (less than 500 J/kg) across portions of northwest Kansas. These showers should gradually intensify this morning as instability slightly improves, and some widely scattered storms are possible along and west of the Flint Hills. A couple of these storms could produce half-inch hail, but widespread strong to severe storms are not expected given the less than ideal environment. This activity should gradually come to an end by early afternoon. Given the isolated to widely scattered spatial coverage, widespread rainfall is not expected. By this afternoon, most locations should dry out, and temperatures will generally top out around 80. This Afternoon-Next Monday... A weak upper shortwave trough will skate over the High Plains late this afternoon, and with moderate instability, a complex of storms is expected to develop across eastern Colorado/western Kansas and quickly move eastward this evening into tonight. The lack of instability east of US 281 will limit the eastward extent of these storms, but left over showers remain possible late tonight west of I-135. Wednesday will likely remain dry for much of the day, and storm chances really don`t return until Thursday morning as a more defined shortwave trough approaches the region. Multiple round of storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night, and global deterministic and ensemble models suggest Thursday has the best chance of widespread rainfall this week. Thursday morning`s storms will likely be a result of mid-level WAA and moisture transport, and this activity will move north and east by late morning/early afternoon. As a result of clearing out Thursday afternoon, moderate instability should be in place across much of forecast area. Storms are forecast develop across the High Plains early in the afternoon and progress eastward into the favorable airmass late Thursday evening/Thursday night. Weak shear appears to be the main limiting factor for more organized severe storms, but storms will likely at least produce small hail and gusty winds as they move into the forecast area from the west. Rain chances should come to an end from west to east late Thursday night into Friday morning. Additional embedded waves in northwest to zonal flow will help to keep low rain chances in the forecast for Friday through next Monday. Temperature-wise, warmer conditions are expected this weekend towards the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Aviation concern will mainly be storms this morning. Storms developed a few hours ago over west-central KS along a mid level baroclinic zone. They have slowly been growing upscale with some small hail now possible with the stronger storms. Current thinking is that this activity will gradually diminish as the afternoon hours approach. KICT-KHUT-KGBD will have the best chance to see one of these storms over the next few hours. Outside of the storms, VFR conditions are anticipated through this TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...RBL