Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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099 FXUS63 KICT 261115 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 615 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Few storms this afternoon across central and northeast KS. - Dry and warm for Memorial Day. - Periodic storm chances increasing Wed night and continuing through at least Fri. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Water vapor imagery shows one upper impulse lifting into the Mid Mississippi Valley with another circulation about to move out of the Central Rockies. Last but not least, another piece of energy is located over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, low pressure is situated across south central KS with a trough from Eastern Nebraska into the low over central KS. Storms continue over northeast KS into the Ozarks where an impressive low level jet is providing strong 850mb moisture transport. Better low level jet focus will shift east this morning as 850mb flow starts to veer. So may continue to see some activity over far southeast KS around sunrise but will quickly move off into southern MO. Currently expecting some iso- sct showers and storms this afternoon across northeast and central KS as the last upper impulse slides across the area. While mid and upper flow will not be particularly strong, there should be around 1000-1500J/CAPE by this afternoon. This activity will be strongly diurnally driven. The impulse over the Northern Rockies will pass over the Northern Plains Mon morning as a more robust upper low sinks south across Eastern Manitoba. This will bring northwest flow over the central Plains for Monday setting up dry and warm conditions. For Tue, upper troughing will encompass the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region with shortwave troughing moving into the Pacific Northwest. Scattered shower and storm chances will increase for Tue night as a mid level baroclinc zone sets up with some decent 700mb moisture transport along it. For mid to late week, a broad area of upper troughing will encompass the Western CONUS with the main upper trough tracking from the Northern Intermountain into the Northern Rockies. Medium range models agree on a series of weak upper perturbations lifting out of the Desert Southwest and across the Southern Plains for Wed night through at least Fri. While upper flow is fairly weak, there will be plenty of moisture available as the Gulf remains open. So while chances for organized severe storms appears low, we should see storm chances linger through late week with isolated heavy rain the main threat. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 THROUGH 16Z... A line of showers and isolated storms is moving south across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas this morning. A few lightning strikes are possible, especially along the KS/OK stateline over the next couple of hours. A wind shift from southerly to easterly will accompany these showers. North of this activity, intermittent MVFR cigs will likely linger through the late morning hours and periodically impact some TAF sites. Easterly winds should gradually starting turning northerly this morning as a surface low tracks eastward across northeast Oklahoma. Wind speeds in any directions will generally be between 10 and 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots occasionally. AFTER 16Z... Northerly winds should eventually become predominantly northwesterly by early this afternoon across the area. Prior to 00Z, winds speeds will generally range from 10 to 20 knots. After 00Z, winds speeds will decrease to around 5 knots. Additional development of isolated storms is possible across portions of central Kansas, but chances remain too low to mention in the TAFs for now. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...JC