Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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877 FXUS63 KICT 140549 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1249 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions yielding heat indices near 105 continue into the evening - Severe thunderstorms expected late this afternoon into the evening - Additional storms, some severe, possible late Friday into Friday night and again Saturday night, mainly across central KS && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 As of 2 PM Thursday afternoon, a broad area of midlevel ridging remains parked across much of the central and southern Plains. A northern stream shortwave trough near the Great Lakes has pushed a cold front into portions of northern KS. A modest temperature gradient resides along this boundary with 80s and 90s north with near 100 along and south. Coupling in dew points in the 60s to near 70 degrees is contributing to heat indices near 105. Further west, a triple point resides just south of Goodland. Satellite reveals a deepening cumulus field near the triple point. Latest CAMs suggest this cumulus field will be the zone for convective initiation shortly. Continued surface heating and modest convergence along the boundary should foster additional development along the boundary into portions of central KS by 5 PM. The background environment is not overly favorable for organized convection with deep layer shear near 25 kt. That being said, MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg should support strong initial updrafts and possibly a hail threat. In addition, downdraft CAPE values are nearing 2000 J/kg which would support strong downdrafts and damaging winds near 70 mph. Confidence decreases with southern extent in regards to storm potential. Should an established cold pool form, confidence would increase for storms across south central KS. Otherwise, the diurnally driven convection will likely decrease in coverage and intensity shortly after sunset. All of that to say, the greatest confidence for storms exists along and north of Highway 50. Additional storms are possible Friday afternoon into Friday night as the aforementioned surface trough sinks into central/southern KS. The main limiting factor for widespread convection is increasing midlevel temperatures throughout the day as the midlevel ridge axis slides over the area. This would favor northern KS and adjacent areas of NE for storm development. A stronger midlevel shortwave trough is poised to eject into the state Saturday evening. This should focus storms along a weak cold front across central and south central KS. Transitioning into next week, the midlevel ridge axis will amplify across the eastern CONUS early next week, leaving the Plains on its western periphery. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the mid 90s through Tuesday. A western US trough will pivot into the central states Tuesday into Wednesday, shunting a cold front into KS. This should shunt the warmest temperatures into the MS Valley. In addition, shower and storm chances will return Tuesday night through Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Main aviation concern will be storms Fri night across central KS. Storms that developed and tracked south on Thu evening have dissipated across southern KS over the last couple of hours. Storms are expected to develop this afternoon over Eastern CO in an upslope regime and as an upper impulse approaches the Rockies. These storms will track east and northeast Fri evening and will affect north central KS generally after 03z Sat. For now will only run with a prob30 at KRSL-KGBD but confidence is fairly low on how far south storms will make it. Have higher confidence for areas north of our forecast area seeing storms Fri night. Outside of the storms, VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMB AVIATION...RBL